An Alphabet Soup of Economic Predictions

Which is Canada Most Likely to Experience?

You’ve likely heard of analysts using letters of the alphabet to describe the potential paths for Canada’s economic recovery.

Will that graph of the country’s GDP look like a V or more like a U? Perhaps even a W, but hopefully not an L.

Below we take a brief look at what each of the recovery shapes mean, which is most likely, and how that might affect the country’s housing markets.

Let’s take a look at the letters that have been employed to describe the “shape” of where Canada’s economy has been and where it’s headed:  

V-Shaped: The most optimistic of the scenarios, this forecasts the steep decline in Canada’s GDP bouncing back quickly and returning to pre-COVID levels in short order.

U-Shaped: Similar to the “V” recovery, but this scenario anticipates a longer period of low or no growth. However, it also describes an eventual quick return to pre-COVID growth levels. 

“Nike Swoosh” Shaped: This is a variation of the “U-shaped” recovery, but describes a more gradual and prolonged period of economic recovery.  

W-Shaped: Like the V-shaped scenario, except the W forecasts a second steep decline in economic performance—possibly due to a second wave of the virus—followed by a second quick recovery to more normal levels.

L-Shaped: This is the most dreaded of them all, describing a persistent recession that doesn’t see the economy returning to pre-COVID levels potentially for many years.
 
Which Recovery Path is Most Likely?

There’s much disagreement over which model is likely to play out.

Some expect the economy to face continued headwinds for at least the next year, with some ups and some downs, perhaps along the lines of a W-recovery.

“Our economic forecast envisions the economy continuing to operate well below full capacity into 2021,” economists with RBC Economics wrote in a research note. “The road to recovery will be slow, and it could be quite bumpy.”

Others remain optimistic that the V-recovery is still taking shape.  

“The good news is that the incoming data continue to suggest a recovery that is about as v-shaped as we could reasonably have hoped for,” noted Neil Shearing, Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics. “The bad news is that sustaining the pace of recovery will get increasingly difficult from here.”

In a separate research note, economists at Capital Economics added, “In terms of fundamentals, it now seems clear that household income has not fallen by anywhere near as much as we expected in the second quarter, despite the slump in employment.”

Then there are others who don’t think any letter—in the English language or otherwise—can accurately describe the path that lays ahead.

“I don’t think a letter is going to neatly capture what we’re going to be looking at,” Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO, told the Financial Post. 

What’s the Impact on Canada’s Housing Market?

The fallout for the real estate and mortgage markets has been a big unknown since the start of the crisis, largely because both supply and demand fell in unison.

“The fact both sides of the demand-supply equation fell in virtually equal proportions…revealed an important characteristic of COVID-19,” RBC economist Robert Hogue wrote. “To date, it hasn’t created market imbalances.”

While home sales plummeted in April by 57% as the effects of the lockdowns took hold, the decline in home prices has so far been limited in many markets.

And with sales already rebounding in May by nearly 57% and new listings seeing a 69% increase, there are signs some markets may be back to posting year-over-year price increases in short order.

As of May, MLS benchmark prices were up year-over-year in the Greater Toronto Area (+9.4%), Greater Vancouver (+2.9%), Montreal (+11%), Ottawa (+15.7%) and Halifax (+9.3%), according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.

Still, as economic fundamentals remain below potential for the foreseeable future and as government assistance programs, such as CERB and the mortgage payment deferrals, come offline this fall, many expect modest price declines.

“We believe downward price pressure will build in most markets in the coming months,” wrote Robert Hogue of RBC Economics. “Nationwide, we expect benchmark prices to fall 7% by the middle of 2021, though believe a widespread collapse in property values is unlikely.”

Mortgage Insurers Making Headlines

CMHC Makes Policy Changes – Genworth & Canada Guaranty Stay Put

It came as a surprise to many mortgage industry insiders when the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) announced its plan to further tighten their lending guidelines on July 1, 2020. Thankfully for many potential homeowners, Canada’s two private insurers, Genworth and Canada Guaranty, have decided not to follow suit.

Citing a need to mitigate its exposure (and taxpayer’s) to what the Crown Corporation’s CEO Evan Siddall’s predicts will be a drop in house values by as little as 9% and as much as 18% due to COVID-19, and a potential surge in household debt from 176% to 200% through 2021, they implemented changes that would cut purchasing power by up to 11%.

Under CMHC’s new guidelines, which is set to go into effect on July 1, 2020, the following will apply:

• Maximum Gross Debt Service (GDS) ratios, or the max percentage of home ownership debt payments ie principal, interest, taxes, condo fees and heat when compared to gross income, will be lowered to 35% (from 39%)
•  Maximum Total Debt Service (TDS) ratios, or the max percentage of total personal debt payments relative to gross income, will be lowered to 42% (from 44%)
• The minimum credit score needed to qualify will rise to 680 (from 600) for at least one household borrower
• Many non-traditional sources of down payment that “increase indebtedness” will not be permitted. 

However, borrowers will still be able to access their RRSPs through the Home Buyers Plan or a home equity line of credit on another property they own.

According to Mortgage Professionals Canada, 61% of first-time home buyers buy with less than 20% down. And 20% of down payment funds come from borrowed sources. This move by CMHC could cut purchasing power by up to 11%.  For example, a family earning $100,000 with 5% down, with no other debt, would qualify for a $320,000 mortgage (approx.) Under the new CMHC guidelines that mortgage amount gets reduced to approx. $280,000.  

Siddall said in a statement, “COVID-19 has exposed long-standing vulnerabilities on our financial markets, and we must act now to protect the economic futures of Canadians. These actions will protect home buyers, reduce government and taxpayer risk, and support stability of housing markets while curtailing excessive demand and unsustainable house price growth.”

Critics of the move wondered out loud at the timing of these changes, when provinces have begun easing lockdown restrictions to kickstart the economy, they felt it was counterproductive to efforts focused on regaining confidence in the housing sector.  

Paul Taylor, CEO of Mortgage Professionals Canada was quoted as saying, “…I think the timing for the introduction of these restrictions is poor, especially since the Federal government itself is pouring billions of dollars into the economy to keep it afloat.”

Canada’s Private Insurers Hold Firm

In Canada, federally regulated lending institutions such as banks, non-bank lenders, credit unions and trust companies, are required to insure high ratio mortgages – those with less than 20% down –against default. There are three insurers in Canada -- CMHC is a federal Crown Corporation and Genworth and Canada Guaranty are private sector suppliers of mortgage insurance. 

After reviewing their policies and CMHC’s decision, the two private insurers have decided to NOT follow CMHC’s lead. Both insurers made statements defending their current underwriting polices and are confident in their ability to manage risk. This is positive for borrowers.

As the economy starts its slow climb to recovery, we have seen positive signs across the country as sales start to increase. 

When it comes to real estate, consumer confidence is key. As we continue to ease restrictions, continue to practice safe protocols, and consumers start to feel comfortable again, we may see both homebuyers and those critical home sellers become more active.

It’s hard to say what the true impact to the market might have been if all three insurers had decided to tighten their rules. It’s clear that having a competitive market for mortgage insurance greatly benefits homebuyers. 

Where would you prefer to live?

As we move into Spring, and as provinces across the country begin easing restrictions, The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is hopeful that home sales will start to tick up. The housing and mortgage markets have adapted to COVID-19 and have put safety measures into place with virtual house tours and electronic document signing.

According to available data from Realtor.ca, Canadians are spending more time looking at properties on the site. During the week of March 9, visits dropped by 30%; however, since April 12 traffic has crept back up by 14%, and consumer inquiries through the site rose by 25% -- similar to levels during the same period last year.

Consumer confidence is also on the rise. The Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index ticked up slightly to 38.73 in its second-straight gain after more than two months in free fall.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) reported that construction of multi-unit housing projects remained strong in some provinces last month despite COVID-19.  The agency saw growth in Ontario, Saskatchewan and Manitoba in April.

Deputy Chief Economist for CIBC World Markets believes the hit to the real estate market isn’t as “significant as perceived”. In an interview with Real Estate News Exchange, Tal said, “For the real estate market, if this recovery is going to be relatively long, it means that interest rates will remain relatively low,” said Tal. “That’s positive.”

REMAX has just released its latest report, “Best Places to Live 2020: Canada Livability Report,” and has found “glimmers of hope” for the months ahead.

Liveability, according to the report, is about quality of life at a local level -- ‘A neighbourhood’s dynamism, or lack thereof, involves a delicate convergence between independent small businesses, public institutions, arts and culture, green spaces and housing, to name a few. Here’s what the report found.

Ninety-one per cent of Canadians have at least one important liveability factor when considering a neighbourhood they live in now or would like to live in, in the future. Affordability topped the list at  61%, followed by:

• Walkability (37%)
• Proximity to work (34%)
• Low density neighbourhoods (30%)
• Proximity to transit (30%)
• Access to green spaces/dog parks (30%)

For city lovers, liveability criteria such as proximity to transit, access to green spaces and parks, proximity to good schools and neighbourhood vibrancy (access to art and culture) tops the list for families with or without children.  Various neighbourhoods such as Old Town Toronto and Beltline in Calgary best suit their overall needs.

Retirees prefer areas with access to green spaces and walking paths, proximity to health care or pharmacies, and quietness -- Mill Woods Park in Edmonton and Melville Cove in Halifax are among the top preferred neighbourhoods.

For affordability, Winnipeg and Edmonton are top regions. In Ontario, it’s regions like Ottawa, Windsor and Durham.

Edmonton is ranked at the top for most liveable city. Other cities that ranked high are:

• Ottawa, with neighbourhoods such as Centretown and Lower Town.
• In Victoria, the most up-and-coming neighbourhoods including Colwood and Langford. 
• Winnipeg neighbourhoods Bridgwater Forest, Charleswood, and Devonshire Park. 

Highlights

• Most respondents say they like their quality of life and liveability in the neighbourhood they currently live in (90%):

                * 62 % say they like it a lot

• Eight in 10 (82%) would make at least one sacrifice to live in the neighbourhood that meets their liveability “must-haves”:

                * 30 % would sacrifice dog parks
                * 29 % would sacrifice arts and culture
                * 26 % would sacrifice property size
                * 26 % would sacrifice proximity to parking options (carpool lots, parking garages)

• Seven in 10 (72% ) would search the internet (i.e. Google search) to look for information about new neighbourhoods they are interested in moving to:

                * 39% would ask a real estate agent
                * 38 % would go by word of mouth
                * 15 % would rely on news and market trends reported in the media

Despite reports of slowing economic conditions there are promising signs that that the housing market will make a comeback, although it may take a while for a full recovery.

In the meantime, with many still home bound, there’s no harm in looking at the real estate listings to see what’s available in a neighbourhodd that fits your liveability criteria.

For a deeper dive into the report, read it here.

Government, Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy Reactions to COVID-19

By Mark Kerzner, President TMG The Mortgage Group

There was a second emergency reduction in the Overnight rate of 50 basis points on Friday, March 13 – to ensure market liquidity, and in response to the unprecedented economic impacts of the COVID-19 virus.  Many are anticipating yet another 50-basis points reduction that would bring the overnight rate to 0.25% in the near future.

Rates ultimately received by the end consumer are determined based on discounts or premiums from BANK Prime rates

One of the big questions following the latest emergency Overnight rate reduction by the Bank of Canada last Friday was whether or not Banks would follow suit with their PRIME rates and if so by what amount.

Yesterday afternoon it was confirmed that Prime lending rates are dropping but the price that new consumers will pay for variable based lending products may in fact be staying flat or potentially going up.  Discounts from bank PRIME of up to 1% appear to be vanishing. For existing variable rate and line of credit clients, your rates should be decreasing.

Just to reiterate, existing discounts for variable in-force mortgages are not changing.  Current discounts would related to new, renewing and refinancing mortgage clients who are choosing variable rate products.

After the Global Financial Crisis over a decade ago, variable rate discounts went from P-85 to P+100 almost overnight. One difference is that the ARM was a much more popular product a decade ago as the spread between it and fixed rate was much more pronounced. Today, the vast majority of consumers have been taking fixed mortgages, and are likely going to continue to do so.

Some have been asking questions about how is it now, that with the reduction in PRIME rates, are we seeing increases in mortgage lending rates.  As bond yields fluctuate (in part due to the oscillating markets) and liquidity premiums starting to dramatically increase, the cost of funds and the desired margins earned by lenders increases.

The Government and Regulators are using other fiscal policy stimulants to work to protect the economy as well.

To stabilize funding, the Government of Canada, through CMHC, announced yesterday they were buying $50 billion of insured mortgage pools.

OSFI mandates the rate of the Domestic Stability Buffer – a rate of capital that is set aside to safeguard against shocks in the system. Over the past few years that amount has continually increased.

It was less than a year ago in April 2019, that the Big 6 banks were required to hold risk weighted capital of 2.25% against the backdrop of increasing indebtedness of Canadian households and increasing ‘vulnerabilities’ faced by those lending institutions.

Lowering the capital requirements to 1% increases the ability for banks to lend approximately $300B in freed up capital. This is largely anticipated to support small business loans, helping those firms meet immediate business and payroll obligations.

In the mortgage world one announcement that received attention on March 13th was OSFI suspending consultation on the minimum qualifying rate for uninsured mortgages. This means the previously announced changes to the Stress Test were now not coming into force. I can assume that OSFI and the Minister of Finance never likely imagined rates dropping this low and having people qualify at 4% (or lower) when they likely consider 4% to be a more normalized rate to begin with (and not a buffer rate).

For those with mortgages, it’s now very important to speak with a licensed mortgage broker to assess options you may have available to refinance, early renew, extend term, choosing longer term fixed rate products, etc.

For those of you in financial distress who are existing mortgage consumers you have a variety of options available to you. A mortgage professional can help you navigate that landscape with your current lender and potentially with your mortgage insurer as well.  Options may include, payment deferral, loan re-amortization, capitalization of outstanding interest arrears and other eligible expenses and special payment arrangements.

This situation is unprecedented and is requiring swift and significant action.

The Bank of Canada and the Federal and Provincial Governments are setting up defence mechanisms during this unprecedented global pandemic. Ensuring the financial system operates, protecting deposits, ensuring liquidity, and providing a means of support for business continuity are at the forefront.

A mortgage professional has always been best suited to guide you through your personal situation and to provide you with options worthy of consideration. That has never been truer than Today.

Know Your Words – Mortgage Words, that is

Buying a home is a big investment. With so much at stake, it’s important learn what you can about the homebuying process as well as understanding the “language” of mortgage lending.

A recent survey conducted by the Financial Consumer Agency of Canada, and the Bank of Canada in 2019 suggested that homeowners don’t have a good understanding of the terminology used in mortgage lending. A large percentage -- 74% of homeowners or soon-to-be homebuyers -- did not fully understand what a mortgage term or amortization period were.

So, to help you better understand what you’re getting into, here is a partial list of terms to increase your mortgage knowledge.

• Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM): A type of mortgage in which the interest rate applied on the outstanding balance varies throughout the life of the loan. The interest rate resets based on the lender’s Prime rate plus or minus a variance. With most ARM mortgages, different from VRM mortgages (variable rate mortgages) the mortgage payment adjusts automatically with each change in interest rate.
• Adjustment Date: A date used by the borrower and lender to move payment dates to a schedule that suits the borrower. Between the funding date and the adjustment date, the borrower typically pays interest only vs. principal and interest.
• Amortization Period: The number of years over which you have to repay a loan. The most common period is 25 years for a first-time homebuyer.
• Benchmark Rate:  A qualifying rate set by the Bank of Canada and can be adjusted at any time.  All insured and insurable mortgages must meet the standard affordability tests (Gross Debt Service and Total Debt Service) “as if” the interest rate is the Benchmark Rate. Also referred to as a “stress test”.  Designed to ensure that borrowers and the housing market can sustain higher interest rates.
• Bridge Financing: (Also referred to as Interim Financing) A loan against a property being sold allowing the owner to use their equity to purchase a new property and take possession of the new property before the Closing Date of the sale.  There must be a firm sale of the property being sold.
• Closed Mortgage: A mortgage whose term cannot be altered until maturity, unless the lender agrees and the borrower agrees to pay a fee called a pre-payment penalty.
• Collateral Charges: Unlike a standard mortgage, a collateral charge is often re-advanceable, meaning the lender can lend you more money after closing without you needing to refinance and pay a lawyer. A collateral charge may not be transferable -- it cannot be assigned (switched) to a new lender like a regular mortgage.
• Deposit: Money placed under the care of a third party (real estate representative, lawyer or notary) by the purchaser when he makes an Offer to Purchase. The money is paid to the vendor upon closing the sale or returned if the conditions are not satisfied. This is typically held in trust.
• Downpayment: The part of the home purchase money that is not paid out of the mortgage loan.
• Equity: The total value of the owner’s interest in a property, calculated as the value of the home less the total outstanding obligations.
• Fixed Rate Mortgage: A mortgage for which the rate of interest is fixed for a specific period of time (See term).
• Gross Debt Service Ratio (GDS): The percentage of the borrower’s gross monthly income that is used for monthly housing payments (principal, interest, taxes, heating costs, and half of any condominium fees).
• HELOC: A home equity line of credit (pronounced hee-lock) is a loan in which the lender agrees to lend a maximum amount within an agreed period (called a term), where the collateral is the borrower's equity in his/her house. These are often re-advanceable.
• Insurable Mortgage: This type of mortgage can now be considered the new “insured mortgage”. These are still eligible for default insurance but may be portfolio-insured at the lender’s expense or high-ratio insured at the client’s expense.
• Insured Mortgage: A mortgage transaction where the default insurance premium is paid by the client, as is typical in a high-ratio mortgage. 
• Interest Rate Differential (IRD): A compensation charge that may apply if you pay off your mortgage prior to the maturity date, or pay the mortgage principal down beyond the amount of your prepayment privileges, usually in a fixed-rate mortgage.
• Loan-to-Value: The amount of the mortgage loan compared to the value of the property.
• Monoline Lender: Monoline lenders focus on just mortgages as opposed to banks and credit unions which offer a variety of services. 
• Mortgage Default Insurance: If you have a high-ratio mortgage (more than 80% of the lending value of the property) your lender will probably require that you purchase mortgage loan insurance, which is available from CMHC, Genworth Canada or Canada Guaranty.
• Mortgage Life Insurance: Provides coverage for your family should you die before your mortgage is paid off. This insurance can be purchased through your mortgage professional.
• Open Mortgage: Allows the borrower to pay any amount of the principal, including the entire balance, off at any time without penalty. You may pay a higher interest rate for the flexibility of an Open Mortgage, but perhaps warranted if a sale is anticipated or in the case of buying property to fix up and sell.
• Portable Mortgage: A mortgage with an option that allows a buyer to transfer a current mortgage to a new property. (Subject to full borrower and property approval)
• Qualifying Rates: The rate used to qualify a borrower for a mortgage. Lenders use these rates to calculate your debt-service ratio, which is the ratio between your debt and income. This serves as a gauge of your ultimate ability to repay the obligation over the life of the mortgage.
• Stress test and Stress Test Rate: Similar to Benchmark Rate and used for uninsurable mortgages. The Stress Test rate is the higher of the contract rate plus a government defined increment, currently at 200 basis points, or the current Benchmark Rate. All uninsurable mortgages must meet the standard affordability tests (Gross Debt Service and Total Debt Service) “as if” the interest rate is the Stress Test rate. Designed to ensure that borrowers and the housing market can sustain higher interest rates.
• Term: The length of time that mortgage conditions, including the interest rate you pay, are in effect. At the end of the term, the borrower (you) can pay off the mortgage or renew for another term. Mortgage terms can range from six months to ten years; the most common is 5 years.
• Un-insurable Mortgage: These mortgages are not eligible for default insurance and apply to refinances, rental properties, stated income clients, and on purchases greater than $1M.
• Variable Rate Mortgage (VRM): A type of mortgage in which the interest rate applied on the outstanding balance varies throughout the life of the loan.  The interest rate resets based on the lender’s Prime rate plus or minus a variance.  With most VRM mortgages, different from ARM mortgages (Adjustable Rate Mortgage), the mortgage payment does not adjust automatically change with each change in interest rate.  The lender typically reminds you that you may adjust the payment by contacting them. 

Of course there are more, but these seem to be the ones that homebuyers often ask about. If you need clarification or have question, contact your mortgage professional.

Reduce your holiday debt

Happy New Year! As we enter this new decade, do you have some spending regret?  You promised to stick to a budget; you promised to scale down and have an old-school, back-to-basics, holiday. But some items were just too hard to resist.

Well, you’re not alone. Holiday spending has been ticking up over the past few years, according to a report from PWC Canada. While the 2019 numbers aren’t out yet, PWC predicted that holiday spending would be up 1.9% to an average of CA$1,593. Why? Canadians’ confidence in the economy and their own personal finances is up. And while a quarter of Canadians planned to spend more than they did in 2018, it’s younger shoppers who are leading the charge, with 42% of Gen Z and 35% of millennials bringing more joy to their world.

Every holiday season, many consumers reach their debt limit. And January is when there is a rise in bankruptcy filings and consumer proposals.

What can you do?

Here are a few tips to help get rid of that extra debt quickly.

Create a budget
Know where you’re at financially and start wherever you are. If you’re unsure of where to start, try a budgeting app. Once you know what you earn and what you spend each month -- it helps to see those numbers written out and itemized -- any monies left over can be used to pay off debt.  See what bills have high-interest rates, and pay those off first.

Change spending habits in the short-term
Put away the credit cards. Pay at least the minimum amount owed to avoid extra fees, but if you can, pay extra to get that debt down faster. Look at your other expenses and see where you can trim.  You can review your grocery budget; cancel subscriptions and/or put memberships on hold.

Find, or negotiate, a lower interest rate
Credit card interest rates can be notoriously high. Sometimes, if your payments have been current, creditors may be willing to reduce the rate if you simply ask. Your card company wants to keep your business, after all, and now is when competitors unleash their most attractive balance-transfer campaigns.

Get a game plan to pay off multiple cards/debts
If you’re still stuck with high-interest cards, list them in order of rates, highest to lowest. A reasonable approach is to attack the highest-interest cards first (making sure you pay the minimum on the other cards) and work your way down.

Consolidate debt
This doesn’t actually reduce debt but it can make monthly payments easier and if the loan has a lower interest rate than a credit card, then you’ll save dollars in the long run.  If you own a home, consider speaking with a mortgage professional for a way to consolidate debt.

Refinance Your Mortgage
Mortgage rates are lower than consolidation loans and the increase can be amortized over the life of the mortgage. If you think refinancing may work for you, contact your mortgage professional and review all your current debts.

Use your holiday bonus
If you got one, consider using it toward paying off debt rather than spending it on a vacation or other luxury purchases. I know, you worked hard to get it, but you’ll be less stressed in the long run.

Life insurance loan  
If you’ve been paying into a life insurance policy that has built up a cash value, check to see how much is available to you. You won’t be cancelling your policy but companies may let you borrow the cash that’s been accumulated.

Don’t despair, there is usually a  solution for everything.



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Use the Smith Maneuver to Build Wealth

What’s the Smith Maneuver? It’s a wealth-building strategy to create a tax-deductible mortgage. You may have heard, and envied, that mortgage holders in the US can claim their mortgage interest as a tax deduction. Well, you may be able to use that strategy in Canada with the Smith Maneuver. Here’s how it works.

In Canada, if you borrow money to invest in a product that produces an income such as an investment property or a dividend paying stock, the interest on the borrowed money may become tax deductible.

If you borrow against the equity in your home, invest it in income-producing products, then you can use the tax refund to further pay down the mortgage. By repeating that a number of times, you can pay off your mortgage.

The man behind it all was Fraser Smith, a financial strategist based in Victoria, British Columbia. He pioneered The Smith Maneuver, a ground-breaking, legal strategy that lets ordinary Canadian homeowners make their mortgages tax deductible. In his work, he saw that too many Canadians were waiting until their mortgages were paid off before they started to build an investment portfolio, missing out on years of compounding interest, and putting themselves in the position of being house rich and cash poor in retirement, unlike his wealthier investors who used tax strategies to grow wealth. So, he learned the rules of tax deductibility and penned the book The Smith Maneuver for all Canadians.

In a simplified way -- here’s how it works: It starts with a re-advanceable mortgage, which is a mortgage linked with a line of credit. The credit limit for your mortgage plus the credit line is normally 80% of the appraised value of your home, but new rules have changed that to 65% of the value of your home. With each mortgage payment, you pay down some principal, which immediately becomes available credit in the credit line. You can now borrow this amount to invest directly from the credit line.  Your investment credit line interest is normally tax deductible and you should receive a refund, which will be small in the beginning.

Use the line of credit portion to invest in incoming-producing products but never in an RRSP – you’ll lose the tax deduction.

At tax season, you can deduct the annual amount of interest you paid on your line of credit against your income.  Then apply the tax return and investment income against your non-deductible mortgage and invest the new money that’s now in your line of credit. Repeat this until your nondeductible mortgage is paid off.

By doing this you get to build a large investment portfolio without waiting to pay off your mortgage first; you get to quickly pay down your non-deductible mortgage in a hurry; and your new investment loan is tax deductible.

To learn more about this strategy and to see if it can work in your situation, contact a mortgage broker.

Important Mortgage Features to Consider

Real estate continues to be a hot commodity in most parts of the country, despite the many changes we’ve gone through over the last few years. Prices in some areas are up and listings are in short supply in other areas, but the housing market overall has been moderating over the last year, and analysts are forecasting a balanced market for the rest of 2019 and into 2020.

Interest rates are comparatively low and competition among lenders to offer favourable rates is high.  It’s always a good idea to read the fine print to make sure you’re getting the best mortgage product, at the best rate, for your particular need.

Because lenders do differ, it’s important to know what features are important to you before deciding on a lender. Here are six characteristics of mortgages to assist home buyers assess their offers:

1. Blend and Extend. The “increase and blend” option has been around for almost 20 years and may be an option in some situations. For example, if your current lender doesn’t allow a change in the maturity date, then you’re locked into the remaining time left on the term.  While that’s not the end of the world, in a rising rate environment this can be inconvenient. If you’re moving up, and buying at your maximum loan-to-value, you probably don’t want just a 1 to 2-year term, and with the new benchmark rule, you may not even qualify.  If rates have dropped since the original mortgage you could run into the “Interest Rate Differential” (IRD), which might be too large and you can’t move.  
2. Early Payout Penalty Calculation. Some chartered Banks are known for their extremely large IRD penalties.  If you don’t know whether you’ll keep the mortgage for the entire term then make sure you understand the payout penalty. 
3. Mortgage Registration. Is the mortgage registered as a non-standard charge, either a running account, or a collateral charge? If so, then it becomes challenging to switch this mortgage out to take advantage of lower rates, although collateral switches are becoming more widely available. Consider this scenario: If the lending institution knows you will have to incur $1,000 or more in possible costs, as well as put in the time and effort to complete a refinance with another lender, then there might be little incentive to offer you best rates at renewal time when a small rate reduction might be enough to keep your business. On the other hand, there are advantages such as making it easier to qualify with fewer expenses down the road if you need to access additional funds.
4. Pre-Payment Privileges. Is the lender offering 10/10, 15/15, or 20/20?  That means allowing prepayments of 10%, 15 % or 20% annually on the outstanding balance of the mortgage.  Also, can these lump sum payments be made anytime per year or only at the mortgage anniversary? And how easy is it to make lump sum payments? Do you have to go into the branch, call a 1-800 number? Or can you simply go online and do it.  These are important factors to consider.
5. Porting Features. This feature can vary from lender to lender. Read the fine print, especially if you know you might need to move before the mortgage maturity date. Some lenders require a sale and purchase to occur on the same day in a port, which can be inconvenient. A more flexible, and available program allows typically up to 60 days gap or 60 days overlap; and then there can be exceptions allowing longer periods beyond that.
6. Online Access. All of the chartered Banks offer online access as do a number of monoline lenders. Generally online access allows you to see your balance, make additional lump sum payments, or make a payment increase. This can be a time-saving feature for tech-savvy consumers. 

There is more to getting a mortgage than just rate. Talk to a mortgage broker first who can help you navigate the mortgage terms and who can help you find the best product for your needs.

Yes, you can be a homeowner

The news is full of negatives about housing market slowdowns, mortgage stress tests that shut millennials out of homeownership, low inventory, a slowing economy – it goes on. Although it may seem gloomy to many, there are a few silver linings. The Canadian dream of homeownership is still alive, although it may look a bit different than the traditional idea of owning a home.

First of all, the make-up of home buyers has seen a distinct change from the more traditional trend of buying with a partner/spouse. According to the recent RBC Home Ownership Poll, 28% of those polled say they need help and are purchasing or planning to purchase with their family. That is almost as many as those who say they can purchase alone (32%).

When compared to past years, buying a home with a partner or spouse has been steadily declining (42% versus 49% in 2017), while non-traditional trends, like purchasing a home alone (32% versus 29% in 2017), are climbing.

It’s also clear that what’s happening in today’s market is having an impact on buyers with 56% of Canadians thinking it's better to wait until next year to purchase a home. Almost half  of those are prepared to push the purchase out two years or more (highest among 18-34-year olds, 55%). Of those waiting to buy, 54% have the expectation that house prices will come down (as high as 68% of British Columbians and 58% of Ontarians expect the price of housing to drop).

Here are some highlights in the poll:

• Canadians feel it makes more sense to buy than rent (66%).
• Canadians are well positioned to weather a potential downturn in housing prices (71%) or an increase in interest rates (63%).
• Affordability (21%) and being in a safe neighbourhood (20%) top the list of what Canadians must have, while buying in 'the right' neighbourhood is less of a concern (6%, steady decline since 2015).
• Canadians are most willing to sacrifice the conveniences of being close to a major highway (16%), dining and entertainment (13%), good schools (11%) and public transit (10%).

A new housing reality

In the poll, eight-in-10 Canadians say a home or condominium purchase is still a good investment (81%). When we look at the condo market, there is a lot happening. This year, a record number of condos are set for completion in the GTA, which will likely slow price growth.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), in its most recent forecast said it expects the monthly trend for sales to improve slowly over 2019. Low interest rates and a strong job market is positive, with pricing projected to stabilize over the next two years, except in markets where there is a shortage of supply.

Non-traditional housing and co-owning arrangements are popping up across the country. The focus is on community is the key to cohousing projects that generally consist of individual homes, built around a common house with shared amenities. These amenities generally contain a kitchen and dining room and can have anything from kids’ playrooms and workshops to guest rooms and gardens.


Get ready

While it’s true that government policies have made it harder for some to qualify, the new ‘shared equity program’ and the RRSP withdrawal increase may help some of those people. 

As we head into the Spring market, listings will start to increase as buyers and sellers come out of hibernation. It’s important for homebuyers to educate themselves about mortgages, including how to qualify in this new stress-test environment. Working with a TMG mortgage professional will help you navigate the ins and outs of the mortgage process, from qualifying to approval and through to closing.

If you don’t qualify right now, your mortgage professional will show you ways to increase your likelihood of qualifying in the future.

Yes, you can fulfill your dream of homeownership.

Why a mortgage professional?

By working with a licensed mortgage professional, you have a trusted adviser and problem solver. Brokers take the time to first understand a client’s needs, both short term and long term, then recommend the right mortgage and present options. In addition to straight home purchases, brokers work with clients who refinance to consolidate debt, who are looking to purchase second homes, who are looking for the best options at renewal time, and brokers help clients make property-related investment decisions.

What if thoughts were things?

By Bud Jorgenson, Vice-President, Prairie Region
TMG The Mortgage Group

I was speaking with a mortgage broker recently who was struggling as their volume was down from previous years. 

They explained they weren't doing anything differently and just found themselves in a funk, and were asking for my perspective on what they should do. 

 Of course, we discussed all the reasons why things had changed for them. 

We talked about the changes in the market, the increased competition, the rate discounters, the underwriting rule changes etc.

My response was and is today that these changes have zero effect on your business and the only thing that matters is your response to these changes. 

I heard the concept of "thoughts are things" about 25 years ago and after testing it and seeing it in action with so many successful people throughout my professional life, I believe it to be the determining factor in our success or failure, in both our professional and personal life.  I also love that this is the one thing that I have complete control over.  How we can apply this in our everyday life as mortgage brokers is so simple. 

When walking into a first meeting with a client, take a moment to visualize how you would like the meeting to go, see it unfolding in a positive way and resulting in you completing a mortgage for them. 

When a cold call comes in asking for your best rate, it's so easy to consider this a waste of time. Instead, see it as an opportunity, and challenge yourself to turn that client from a discount shopper to a value client. 

When dealing with underwriters or speaking to realtors about partnering, or in every action, spend a few minutes setting the stage by visualizing the outcome in a positive way.  We all know people in our lives who seem to have that humble confidence that attracts people and opportunities that has helped them be successful. Let's be those people. 

I can't ever speak or write about success without throwing in a golf analogy.  I will finish with a quote from golfing great Jack Nicholas who is arguably the greatest golfer in history with 18 major wins.  When asked what he believed to be the most important factor in his success he said the following...

“I never hit a shot, not even in practice, without having a very sharp, in-focus picture of it in my head,” Nicklaus said. “First, I see the ball, where I want it to finish, nice and white, and sitting up high on the bright green grass. Then, the scene quickly changes, and I see the ball going there: its path, trajectory, and shape, even its behaviour on landing. Then there is a sort of fade-out, and the next scene shows me making the kind of swing that will turn the previous images into reality.”

NU Stream Realty Inc and NU Stream Mortgage Inc chooses TMG The Mortgage Group

Wells Peng, Dan Pultr (TMG) and Anna Zhang

TMG The Mortgage Group is proud to announce a strategic affiliation with NU Stream Realty Inc and NU Stream Mortgage Inc located in B.C.

NU Stream was searching for a partner with similar values to help facilitate its incredible growth, while at the same time servicing their clients with the best mortgage products in the market.

“When we were looking at this next stage of growth, TMG’s support systems, training and tools impressed us,” said Wells Peng, founder and CEO of NU Stream.  “The TMG team is the best fit for our company and we look forward to continuing to grow together.”

TMG’s Vice-President of BC, Dan Pultr, is equally as enthusiastic.  “From the moment we met with the partners at NU Stream, we were excited to work with such growth and client focused individuals,” he said. “The company’s market penetration over the past few years has been impressive -- $3B in transactions since inception in 2016 – and when they shared their vision, it was a natural fit. “

“TMG has earned a stellar reputation in the industry because our staff, systems and resources are placed against the filter of adding value to our broker partners. We’re confident TMG will truly complement NU Stream’s business and make this partnership a win-win,” Pultr added.

TMG The Mortgage Group is an award-winning mortgage brokerage and the largest independent brokerage in Canada with more than 800 agents and brokers across the country.

NU Stream Realty Inc. is an innovative real estate brokerage company using a team-based model that has proven to be highly efficient, professional, and comprehensive. NU Stream Realty Inc. is developing operations in both the Vancouver and Toronto Chinese markets simultaneously, establishing a platform to serve customers across Canada.

The mortgage industry stresses quality over quantity

By Mark Kerzner, President TMG The Mortgage Group

The Canadian mortgage landscape has seen regulatory change after change combined with continued Government legislative changes since the Fall of 2016.  Government changes to mortgage rules have been led by the Department of Finance, superimposed with tightening from the Bank of Canada. We have also seen some provinces introduce their own restrictions that have resulted in increased taxes to foreigners and speculators.

As Canadians it is important that we question the reasons for these rule and guideline changes.  There are slightly different answers depending on where the rule changes are coming from. For the most part, they stem from the fact that there was a belief that the Canadian housing market was overheating, that an interest rate shock would paralyze a great many Canadians in being able to afford their payments when interest rates increase, and that the liability of the Government in backstopping mortgages was just too high.

It would seem the motivation to ‘tighten’ might have come from different vantage points but implemented with unison.  The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI), which oversees federally-regulated financial institutions wants to ensure their solvency, whereas the Department of Finance may have been more concerned about outstanding debt, and the Bank of Canada on their inability to raise rates quickly enough to stem borrowing activity.

And after nearly a year and a half of dealing with all these changes we are told by an international credit rating agency (S&P) that the quality of Canadian mortgages is deteriorating, resulting in the lowering of a key metric for Canadian banks.

I just don’t buy it. And to suggest that the broker channel is somehow complicit with the elevated levels of fraud is insulting. 

Robert McLister in Canadian Mortgage Trends, cited from the agency’s report: "…The growing share of residential mortgages originated via brokers, compound the risks of high household debt and house prices…As brokers do not bear credit risk for the residential mortgages they initiate, and are generally compensated primarily on the quantity (not quality) of residential mortgages applications they process, we believe brokers have less incentive than a lender’s own staff to prevent fraud.” 

Here are the facts: Deals originated by mortgage brokers are often underwritten four times. The broker underwrites the deal and reviews the documents for suitability deciding where to place the file. The underwriter underwrites the file according to the specifications of the lender guidelines. When the file is insured or insurable, the mortgage insurer (CMHC, Genworth or Canada Guaranty) underwrite the file, and with many non-bank lenders, the file may be reviewed on a pre-funding audit (may even go through Quality Assurance at one of the banks).

Fraud is an issue, and as an industry we cannot tolerate it. It is an issue in bank branches, with mobile sales forces as well as and among brokers.

The Financial Consumer Agency of Canada (FCAC) in their 9-month long study just outlined the wrongdoings of bank mobile sales forces. Included in their findings were; 

• Performance management programs -- including financial and non-financial incentives, sales targets and scorecards -- may increase the risk of mis-selling and breaching market conduct obligations

We must all be vigilant against fraudsters. Brokers are regulated provincially and must complete educational requirements. In many jurisdictions they have to complete periodic re-licensing requirements.

 In addition, there are supervisory requirements placed upon the brokerages where agents are licensed. The vast majority of brokers view their livelihood as a profession and would not want to jeopardize it in any respect.

All that said, over the past ten years, and accelerated more recently, mortgage rule guideline and qualification changes have dramatically increased the quality of the mortgages underwritten in Canada. Average credit scores have increased significantly, and arrears rates remain at historically low levels.

Brokers have been an accountability check on other channels for some time ensuring that consumers have choice and access to market leading rates. In the same respect, they are also educated and knowledgeable about lending guidelines and suitability. In the same respect they are an accountability check to maintain high standards in mortgage underwriting and fulfillment.

I shudder to think what the Canadian mortgage landscape would look like without a vibrant mortgage broker channel.

TMG The Mortgage Group expands to Quebec as Le Groupe Hypothécaire TMG

Claude Girard, new Regional Vice-President
 Le Groupe Hypothécaire TMG

Canada’s largest independent mortgage brokerage, TMG The Mortgage Group is excited to announce that as of April 2, 2018, it will be operating in all 10 provinces. The company will expand to Quebec, operating under the name of Le Groupe Hypothécaire TMG.

Leading the TMG expansion and taking on the role of Vice President for Quebec will be industry veteran Claude Girard.

Claude has 30 years of financial industry experience – the last eight years as Assistant Vice-President for Laurentian Bank. In his role at the bank, Claude developed strong mortgage broker relationships and grew the channel exponentially.

Claude is also well-known in the mortgage community as the representative of the Quebec region for Mortgage Professionals Canada (MPC).  In 2017, he was elected for a second consecutive term and also serves as Treasurer on MPC’s Executive Board of Directors.

Claude is a leading voice for the broker channel in Quebec, working closely on provincial regulatory matters as it pertains to the mortgage broker industry.

 “I am thrilled to be given the responsibility to grow the TMG footprint in the province of Quebec,” Claude said. “I believe with the support of TMG management and systems we have something new and significant to offer brokers in Quebec. Ultimately, our goal is to ensure that more and more Quebecers use the services of a mortgage broker” 

“Claude is a highly respected leader and mortgage industry executive. We are fortunate that he chose TMG as his next opportunity,” said Mark Kerzner, President of TMG The Mortgage Group. “ I look forward to working alongside Claude to meet the needs of brokers in Quebec and providing tools and options to help them exceed their business objectives. We have long sought to enter Quebec but have waited for the right leader to represent our company, Claude is that person.”

Renewing your mortgage? Here’s what you need to know

Consumers are much more informed these days about mortgages and mortgage products, and are highly engaged, especially millennials who are comfortable searching the Internet for information and rates.  According to the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC) 2017 Consumer Survey, 76% of mortgage consumers did online research, and 31% access online information through their mobile devices.

Among those going online, 50% went to lender websites, 25% to broker websites, and 15% visited both lender and broker sites.  Seventy-six per cent used a mortgage calculator, 51% did a financial self-assessment, and 29% filled out an online pre-approval form.

Because consumers are highly engaged, they are more confident about their mortgage decisions. Still, with all that research, more than half contacted a mortgage broker to get further clarification.

According to the survey, mortgage broker share of the market is increasing with renewers, from 26% in 2016 to 35% in 2017. This is a prudent move, considering how much the mortgage rules have changed.

This may be the year you get that renewal letter in the mail. Many of you may just sign the new renewal rate because it’s easy, and the idea of switching to another lender may be too onerous. You are busy with work and family and don’t have the time to do the research to see if there may be a better deal for you.

The CMHC survey found that 39% of households automatically renew their mortgages when the term is up instead of trying to find a better deal. When you’ve done your homework prior to purchasing a home, it only makes sense to do as much research at renewal time as you can. Quite often the renewal rate offered to you by your lender is higher than the market average.

There may also be material changes in your household. Perhaps you’ve started a family, or one of you has been promoted.  This is another good time to contact a mortgage broker to review your financial situation and see what makes sense for you to do.

Here are some tips to make sure you’re getting the best mortgage product:

·       Get going early. Start the discussion four to six months ahead of renewal time. Most lenders will guarantee a discounted rate for four months but your renewal agreement is usually sent only 30 days ahead of your maturity date.

·       The posted rate is usually not the best. Often, depending on your lender, you’ll get the posted rate, not the discounted rate, as a renewal rate. A report by Mortgage Professionals Canada found that renewers working with a mortgage professional saved approx. 2 points below posted rates. That can translate into thousands of dollars in savings.

·       Do your homework. Shop around to get the best deal, tailored to your particular situation. If you decide to switch lenders, there are no penalties at renewal time.

·       It’s not always about interest rate. Don’t fixate on rate. There are other options that may appeal to you such as changes to amortizations or changes to the rate type.

·       Why a mortgage broker? Most surveys find that brokers can get you a better rate because of their relationships with multiple enders. A broker can give you independent advice because they are not tied to one lender. A broker can also save you time with one-stop shopping. And there’s no cost to you.

In some cases, the new rule changes may necessitate that you stay with your current lender at renewal time. A broker can help assess the situation and provide advice, even if that means staying with your current lender.

The bottom line is that research is equally as important at renewal time as it is when purchasing your new home.  Don’t leave it until the last minute.

By Bud Jorgenson, VP.TMG  Prairies

Mentor of the Year, 2017, Mortgage Professionals Canada

What’s best for consumers?

We need to clear the air. We’ve recently come across marketing materials that some Bank mortgage specialists have been sending aimed at “educating” members of the public on the impact of the mortgage rule changes and the limitations of dealing with mortgage brokers. Some bank specialists are referring to mortgage brokers as sub-prime brokers and that the recent changes to the mortgage rules will negatively impact us. As mortgage brokers we would like to respond.

We agree that it is vital for Canadians to be educated on the ways in which the most recent mortgage rule changes coming into effect, and all recent regulatory and legislative changes will impact mortgage consumers and markets as a whole.  We applaud all efforts to bring awareness at this very important juncture in our industry.

The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) is an independent government agency whose mandate is to supervise federally regulated financial institutions.  OSFI is the agency who is updating their B-20 underwriting guidelines that came into effect on January 1, 2018.

In addition to having access (directly or indirectly) to most of the major Tier 1 banks in Canada, mortgage brokers also have access to many other provincially-regulated and private mortgage lenders. Those lenders include Credit Unions, Monoline mortgage lenders who have funded hundreds of billions of dollars in aggregate (including First National, MCAP, Merix, Street Capital, etc) alternative lenders (Canadian Western Bank, Equitable Bank, Home Trust, etc.) and private lenders. 

This allows brokers to ensure that the features of the mortgage are aligned to the client’s needs. Brokers will look at prepayments options, how penalties are calculated, how the mortgage is registered and how the client credit fits against the available products.

Perhaps it is only semantics but when a customer deals with a broker they do not have to ‘negotiate’ a rate with the lender directly – the broker shops the market to secure the best overall cost of borrowing for the unique needs of the consumer.  This competition maximizes the opportunity for a consumer to get the best overall deal.

The recent OSFI changes are actually targeting all consumers (including the federally regulated banks) rather than only the subprime market. In fact, it may create market share opportunities for subprime lenders. 

We certainly agree on the need for consumers to get the best advice. A mortgage broker is licensed with their corresponding provincial regulator. They have to meet initial education and licensing requirements and then have to maintain educational requirements going forward. Given the breadth of lender and mortgage products available to brokers, they have to constantly do research on the options available to their clients.

Brokers also get to deal with large regulated banks. Sometimes that represents the best option for the client to consider. Other times specialty lenders, mono-line lenders and unregulated lenders represent the best interests of consumers. 

Broker market share has actually increased steadily since the onset of the Global Financial Crisis and with each additional mortgage rule and regulation changes. This is because brokers are best suited to assess a mortgage client’s needs and then access a number of market options to fit those needs.

Debunking the myths

Myth: With the broker channel, the goal is to move the mortgage on each renewal

Reality: The goal of the broker channel, in general, is to present multiple options to consumers so they get the optimal mortgage for their unique needs. That includes looking at prepayment options, type of mortgage charges, costs of borrowing, portability, etc.  Brokers often advise their clients to stay with their current lender at renewal. The  goal at renewal is exactly the same. The result of providing clients with the best ongoing advice at the time of origination and at renewal, a broker is able to grow their referral networks.

Myth: If the client remains with the same lender at renewal a small trailer fee is paid to the broker. 

Reality: This is true in some cases and creates accountability between the lender, broker and customer in those cases.

Myth: If they (brokers) move the mortgage to a new lender then the full mortgage commission is paid as it represents a new deal to that new lender. This becomes a “residual or passive income” source for the broker.

Reality: If a client chooses to move their mortgage at renewal after being given the options then it is considered a new deal. As such it has all the corresponding work associated with any new file at that time.  That is not residual income – it is earned income and in most cases paid by the financial institution receiving the mortgage, NOT the client.

Clients save money when they work with a mortgage broker at renewal

The Bank of Canada released a report a few years ago titled “Competition in the Mortgage Market” and found the following:

“Banks also offer larger discounts to new clients than to existing clients. Consumers willing to switch financial institutions when shopping for their mortgage will see, on average, an additional discount of 7 basis points from the posted rate. The results also indicate that borrowers who use a mortgage broker pay less, on average, than borrowers who negotiate with lenders directly. This average discount is about an additional 19 basis points.”

Most mortgage brokers offer ongoing advice and information to their clients. Because they deal with a wide variety of lenders for unique circumstances they are often very well versed in issues affecting mortgage borrowers.

For example, as of January 1^st, a bank rep may tell you all uninsured mortgages have to be qualified at the benchmark rate or 200 basis points (whichever is higher). What they mean to say is all their mortgages are qualified in that manner.

It may be that a bank may be the best option for many clients but other lenders, credit unions for example, can still qualify the borrower at the contract rate.

By working with a licensed mortgage professional, you have a trusted advisor and problem solver, who is best positioned to navigate these changes.

Brokers take the time to first understand a client’s needs, both short term and long term, then recommend the right mortgage and present options. As the lending environment changes, brokers keep up-to-date with all these changes and have access to a variety of lenders including banks, credit unions, trust companies, monoline lenders and private lenders. No one is more knowledgeable and more informed than we are.