Thursday, June 14, 2018

Housing affordability continues to erode



New mortgage rules, rising interest rates, and stress tests have definitely cooled housing market activity by making it more challenging for some to qualify for mortgage. An unwelcome consequence continues to be eroding affordability -- as sales activity slows down, house prices have continued to go up, and not only in major urban centres. 


In the first quarter of 2018, home affordability eroded further at the national level – the 11th straight quarter of declines, according to a report by the National Bank. The bank measures affordability as the mortgage payment on a median-priced home as a percentage of median income. Last quarter, the metric rose by 1.2 points in Canada. The higher the metric, the worse the housing affordability.

The bank also suggests that as interest rates rise, affordability will continue to decline, setting the stage where prices have nowhere to go but down. But when? And will it be too late?

The National Bank report also says that by the end of 2019, prices would need to fall 2% in Toronto and Vancouver to keep home affordability from eroding further.

Economists have been predicting a more stable, balanced economy where people are happily working and are able to pay their debts; where interest rates are “low normal” and where house prices are affordable.  Well, that was a few years ago. The once booming real estate sector is in a bit of a slump. 

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) reported that national home sales on the MLS were down 2.9% in April 2018, to the lowest level in more than five years. About 60% of all local housing markets reported fewer sales.

According to Will Dunning, Chief Economist, Mortgage Professionals Canada, data for the first quarter of 2018 points to a sharp slowdown. For the first quarter, the sales rate was 10.3% slower than in 2017. The average price in Canada was $482,782– a 4.8% drop compared to a year ago. However, when we look at the price index as opposed to averages, which can be easily skewed, Dunning reports a different picture.

The index from CREA shows that in the first quarter of 2018 prices were 6.4% higher compared to a year ago. The index from Teranet/National Bank shows a rise of 7.6%. Price growth is strongly influenced by the balance between supply and demand, which can be measured using the sales-to-new-listings ratio. The data from CREA indicates that the ratio was 56.6% in the first quarter. Based on that ratio, Dunning expects house price growth in many areas of Canada, which is what is indeed happening.

We are living in strange times. World economies have changed; NAFTA is at risk and our economy might start to feel the effects of a trade war with the US. The new mortgage-insurance rules and stress test have indeed impacted the market, especially for the first-time homebuyers.

In an April 2018 survey by West Coast Capital Savings, 60% of young British Columbians (18 to 29 years old) believe it’s impossible to buy a house in the province’s pricey real estate market and are “seriously considering” moving to areas where home ownership is less costly.

While some homebuyers can adjust their housing expectations and move to buy something less expensive, some potential buyers will be knocked out of the market. And will there be enough, good inventory available for purchase?

There is no arguing that the market has cooled, but it has not stopped. We have not yet heard of massive foreclosures, which mean that households continue to pay their mortgages and their debts. 
So, the big question is when will prices really start coming down in a way that will make housing affordable again. 

We need to continue to closely watch the market to determine if rising rates and lower home values are a blip or a trend which will ultimately impact long term affordability for Canadians.
























Friday, May 18, 2018

NU Stream Realty Inc and NU Stream Mortgage Inc chooses TMG The Mortgage Group

Wells Peng, Dan Pultr (TMG) and Anna Zhang

TMG The Mortgage Group is proud to announce a strategic affiliation with NU Stream Realty Inc and NU Stream Mortgage Inc located in B.C.


NU Stream was searching for a partner with similar values to help facilitate its incredible growth, while at the same time servicing their clients with the best mortgage products in the market.

“When we were looking at this next stage of growth, TMG’s support systems, training and tools impressed us,” said Wells Peng, founder and CEO of NU Stream.  “The TMG team is the best fit for our company and we look forward to continuing to grow together.”

TMG’s Vice-President of BC, Dan Pultr, is equally as enthusiastic.  “From the moment we met with the partners at NU Stream, we were excited to work with such growth and client focused individuals,” he said. “The company’s market penetration over the past few years has been impressive -- $3B in transactions since inception in 2016 – and when they shared their vision, it was a natural fit. “

“TMG has earned a stellar reputation in the industry because our staff, systems and resources are placed against the filter of adding value to our broker partners. We’re confident TMG will truly complement NU Stream’s business and make this partnership a win-win,” Pultr added.

TMG The Mortgage Group is an award-winning mortgage brokerage and the largest independent brokerage in Canada with more than 800 agents and brokers across the country.

NU Stream Realty Inc. is an innovative real estate brokerage company using a team-based model that has proven to be highly efficient, professional, and comprehensive. NU Stream Realty Inc. is developing operations in both the Vancouver and Toronto Chinese markets simultaneously, establishing a platform to serve customers across Canada.

Tuesday, May 08, 2018

TMG’s Co-founder Wins Lifetime Achievement Award




In July, 1990 Debbie Thomas and her husband/ business partner Grant opened TMG. In the ensuing 28 years, TMG has grown its presence in the marketplace from four brokers in a small office, to more than 800 mortgage professionals across the country.

Debbie has been the Broker of Record in British Columbia since 1993.

In addition to company awards, Debbie has won the Partner’s in Excellence Award -- CAAMP and Pioneer Award for Lifetime Achievement – MBABC.

As the only female to head up a successful national brokerage, Debbie credits her skills as an educator that has contributed to her influence. She has been the "Mortgage Expert" on Global BC TV for many years and worked hard to get the industry message out to consumers that “Your best mortgage is through a Broker”.

Not only is Debbie committed to the success of TMG, she has shown passion and dedication for the success of others and the industry at large. As part of a very influential Western core group of broker advocates in the early 1990s, she was instrumental in ensuring that Western brokers were properly recognized. Through her efforts, mortgage lenders such as Scotia Bank and HSBC added the West to their business market.

 It’s not surprising that British Columbia enjoys the highest level of mortgage broker activity in the country with more than 35% of consumers seeking out a mortgage professional.

Within TMG, Debbie is seen as a mentor, an expert and a leader. Within the mortgage industry, she is seen as an entrepreneur, an industry advocate and a pioneer.

On Thursday, May 3, Debbie was recognized for her contribution to the mortgage industry by receiving the Lifetime Achievement Award at the Mortgage Awards of Excellence in Toronto. Here is Debbie, in her own words.

“I was both honoured and humbled to receive the inaugural 'Lifetime Achieve Award' at the Mortgage Awards of Excellence. Thanks to the nominating committee for the privilege of being the very first recipient of this award.  

When I think about Lifetime Achievement I start to look back and reflect on the past, as I imagine all of us do, and I thought about the early days of TMG, and of the mortgage industry, and how I got here.

TMG was founded by myself and my husband Grant back in 1990.  That same year the Berlin Wall came down, the first episode of The Simpsons aired and there was this launch of something called the World Wide Web. So, in retrospect, it was very good year for beginnings.

Back in those days, we had one huge, big-ass Fax machine, and we would line-up to send and receive documents.  It was almost a full-time job just organizing and distributing those documents.  Then in 2000, Expert came along and life got a whole lot easier.

We’ve seen a lot of changes in the industry over the years. We’ve seen lenders come, and we’ve seen lenders go. We’ve seen mortgage rates in the double digits, we’ve seen market “corrections” and we’ve seen very hot markets. And we’re still here. Mortgage brokers remain committed to the consumer and making sure they have a choice when it comes to mortgages.

I’m proud to say that we’ve seen more women enter the industry.   Each day I work with outstanding women in the industry – our brokers – our lender BDMs – our underwriters -- and our support staff. Together we are empowering thousands, breaking down barriers and demonstrating that there are really no gender preferences in our industry. With each passing day there are more, strong female leaders emerging. I am grateful to be a part of that.

I have learned many lessons on this journey.  One particular lesson has sustained us -- I have learned about the importance of partnering with the right people. By surrounding ourselves with people of integrity, with people we can trust, it empowers us to be our best.

 From the outset, Grant and I never wavered from our values and our vision – it still sustains us today.”




Thursday, April 26, 2018

Condo investors and the housing market


A recent study titled, “Window Into the World of Condo Investors” by Shaun Hildebrand, senior vice-president of rental research firm Urbanation, and Benjamin Tal, senior economist with CIBC Capital Market, sheds a light into who these investors are in the GTA and how they might impact the condo market in the future.


What’s interesting is that investors who grab the best units at developer pre-sales account for nearly half of the rental housing inventory in the region. And while many are foreign investors, it’s the domestic investors who may hold the key to the future of the real estate market.

According to the report, only about 10% of condo investors are international buyers and are more likely to be local immigrants aged 40 to 60. The reasons are many – a retirement investment or to help their children, for example.

Most investors use a minimum down payment of 20% on a pre-sale unit. Since it may take four to five years to build a condo, the value increases each year until the unit is leased at market rent, which should cover costs and pay down principal. 

However, the future may not look as bright as it once did. While current market conditions have elevated demand, the slow turnover, higher prices for move-up buyers and the mortgage rule changes have reduced turnover, with fewer units available.

A Snapshot of Condo Investors

Some hard data:
  •  In 2017, just over 20% of condo investors purchased the units with no mortgage.
  •  The Big “5” Banks provided two-thirds of the credit
  • Credit unions provided 20$ of the credit
  •  Private lending accounted for 5% in dollar amount but 10% in number of transactions
  • Approx. 30% have an interest rate of more than 6%
  • 16% have interest rates higher than 9%
  •  On average, investors provided the 20% down payment; non-investors, of course, can provide lower down payments. 
  •  44% of investors with a mortgage are in a negative cash flow position
  •  Investors with positive cash flow have an average monthly income of $360
  •  The average resale price was 51% higher than the average pre-sale price

The last few years have been challenging for investors and it’s going to be difficult to get that healthy return.  Forty-four per cent of investors who took possession of their units in 2017 are seeing their rental income fall short of mortgage payments and building maintenance fees.

Here’s a scenario: The authors of the study estimate that new units that were pre-sold over the past year and scheduled for completion in 2021, rents would have to rise by 17% over the next four years, if there were no changes in interest rates, by 28% if rates increased by 100 basis points, and by 39% if rates rose by 200 basis points.

The condo market is the last bastion of affordability, but it’s going to be more important than ever for investors, and non-investors, to make sure they do their homework and get the information they need to make the best decisions.

Tuesday, April 24, 2018

TMG Mortgage Broker Runs 250KM for Breakfast Club of Canada






Can you imagine running a 250km ultra marathon over six days, in the Sahara Desert, while carrying all your supplies?
Mathieu McCaie, a mortgage broker with TMG The Mortgage Group, based in New Brunswick, has done just that. After months of training, this father of two ran 250 km in a six-stage event in the Sahara Desert, under extreme conditions, in part, to raise more than $13,000 for Breakfast Club of Canada.
The Marathon des Sables (MDS) is one of the toughest races in the world. What makes it challenging? “It’s an ultra-marathon where I carried everything I needed over the 6-day race: food, sleeping bag, venom pump, compass, etc., so my backpack weighed about 22 pounds,” McCaie said. “There was also the change in temperature, which varied from 4 degrees at night to around 50 degrees in the daytime.”
 “We at TMG The Mortgage Group, are in awe of Mathieu’s achievement,” said Mark Kerzner, president of TMG. “He is a consummate professional, who leads by example - -this was just his next challenge.”
For McCaie, completing the race felt good, but says he’s ready to move on. “I trained for almost two years and missed precious time with my family,” he said. “I had time to reflect while running and realized I wanted to spend more time with my family.  Before the race, I spent a lot of time working but I have adjusted my work schedule.”
Would he run the race again? Absolutely not, he said.
McCaie trained between 15-20 hours a week since September, determined to accomplish two major objectives: Finish the race, and do so with no permanent injuries. During this rigorous training, he has also been working, and caring for his two young children and… fundraising for Breakfast Club of Canada!
McCaie has raised over $13,000 for Breakfast Club of Canada.
“TMG The Mortgage Group has been a longtime supporter of the Club, and to have the support of individuals like Matt, who go out of their way to raise funds and awareness is inspiring. We congratulate Matt on this amazing achievement!” says Benjamin Neumer, Senior Business Development Advisor, Western Canada, Breakfast Club of Canada.
“It was a tough race, but not as hard as what some kids are going through,” McCaie said. “This cause has hit me hard, especially now that I have my own kids.
To donate to the Club please visit www.breakfastclubcanada.org

Monday, April 09, 2018

The mortgage industry stresses quality over quantity



By Mark Kerzner, President TMG The Mortgage Group

The Canadian mortgage landscape has seen regulatory change after change combined with continued Government legislative changes since the Fall of 2016.  Government changes to mortgage rules have been led by the Department of Finance, superimposed with tightening from the Bank of Canada. We have also seen some provinces introduce their own restrictions that have resulted in increased taxes to foreigners and speculators.

As Canadians it is important that we question the reasons for these rule and guideline changes.  There are slightly different answers depending on where the rule changes are coming from. For the most part, they stem from the fact that there was a belief that the Canadian housing market was overheating, that an interest rate shock would paralyze a great many Canadians in being able to afford their payments when interest rates increase, and that the liability of the Government in backstopping mortgages was just too high.

It would seem the motivation to ‘tighten’ might have come from different vantage points but implemented with unison.  The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI), which oversees federally-regulated financial institutions wants to ensure their solvency, whereas the Department of Finance may have been more concerned about outstanding debt, and the Bank of Canada on their inability to raise rates quickly enough to stem borrowing activity.

And after nearly a year and a half of dealing with all these changes we are told by an international credit rating agency (S&P) that the quality of Canadian mortgages is deteriorating, resulting in the lowering of a key metric for Canadian banks.

I just don’t buy it. And to suggest that the broker channel is somehow complicit with the elevated levels of fraud is insulting. 

Robert McLister in Canadian Mortgage Trends, cited from the agency’s report: "…The growing share of residential mortgages originated via brokers, compound the risks of high household debt and house prices…As brokers do not bear credit risk for the residential mortgages they initiate, and are generally compensated primarily on the quantity (not quality) of residential mortgages applications they process, we believe brokers have less incentive than a lender’s own staff to prevent fraud.” 

Here are the facts: Deals originated by mortgage brokers are often underwritten four times. The broker underwrites the deal and reviews the documents for suitability deciding where to place the file. The underwriter underwrites the file according to the specifications of the lender guidelines. When the file is insured or insurable, the mortgage insurer (CMHC, Genworth or Canada Guaranty) underwrite the file, and with many non-bank lenders, the file may be reviewed on a pre-funding audit (may even go through Quality Assurance at one of the banks).

Fraud is an issue, and as an industry we cannot tolerate it. It is an issue in bank branches, with mobile sales forces as well as and among brokers.

The Financial Consumer Agency of Canada (FCAC) in their 9-month long study just outlined the wrongdoings of bank mobile sales forces. Included in their findings were; 
  • Performance management programs -- including financial and non-financial incentives, sales targets and scorecards -- may increase the risk of mis-selling and breaching market conduct obligations
We must all be vigilant against fraudsters. Brokers are regulated provincially and must complete educational requirements. In many jurisdictions they have to complete periodic re-licensing requirements.

 In addition, there are supervisory requirements placed upon the brokerages where agents are licensed. The vast majority of brokers view their livelihood as a profession and would not want to jeopardize it in any respect.

All that said, over the past ten years, and accelerated more recently, mortgage rule guideline and qualification changes have dramatically increased the quality of the mortgages underwritten in Canada. Average credit scores have increased significantly, and arrears rates remain at historically low levels.

Brokers have been an accountability check on other channels for some time ensuring that consumers have choice and access to market leading rates. In the same respect, they are also educated and knowledgeable about lending guidelines and suitability. In the same respect they are an accountability check to maintain high standards in mortgage underwriting and fulfillment.

I shudder to think what the Canadian mortgage landscape would look like without a vibrant mortgage broker channel.


Wednesday, March 14, 2018

TMG The Mortgage Group expands to Quebec as Le Groupe Hypothécaire TMG

Claude Girard, new Regional Vice-President
 Le Groupe Hypothécaire TMG

Canada’s largest independent mortgage brokerage, TMG The Mortgage Group is excited to announce that as of April 2, 2018, it will be operating in all 10 provinces. The company will expand to Quebec, operating under the name of Le Groupe Hypothécaire TMG.

Leading the TMG expansion and taking on the role of Vice President for Quebec will be industry veteran Claude Girard.

Claude has 30 years of financial industry experience – the last eight years as Assistant Vice-President for Laurentian Bank. In his role at the bank, Claude developed strong mortgage broker relationships and grew the channel exponentially.

Claude is also well-known in the mortgage community as the representative of the Quebec region for Mortgage Professionals Canada (MPC).  In 2017, he was elected for a second consecutive term and also serves as Treasurer on MPC’s Executive Board of Directors.

Claude is a leading voice for the broker channel in Quebec, working closely on provincial regulatory matters as it pertains to the mortgage broker industry.

 “I am thrilled to be given the responsibility to grow the TMG footprint in the province of Quebec,” Claude said. “I believe with the support of TMG management and systems we have something new and significant to offer brokers in Quebec. Ultimately, our goal is to ensure that more and more Quebecers use the services of a mortgage broker” 

“Claude is a highly respected leader and mortgage industry executive. We are fortunate that he chose TMG as his next opportunity,” said Mark Kerzner, President of TMG The Mortgage Group. “ I look forward to working alongside Claude to meet the needs of brokers in Quebec and providing tools and options to help them exceed their business objectives. We have long sought to enter Quebec but have waited for the right leader to represent our company, Claude is that person.”