Canadian Housing Affordability Improves – Really! Here’s Why

Housing affordability has been big talk in the country for a few years now. We’ve had rising interest rates and rising house prices, to a point where government felt it had to intervene to mitigate any negative impacts on household debt. To guard against that, and to perhaps force house prices to come down, the mortgage stress test was introduced, whereby borrowers needed to qualify at a higher rate than the actual contact rate.

Conventional wisdom is that falling prices should improve housing affordability but the stress test resulted in a percentage of the population, mostly first-time home buyers, getting priced out of the market.

Over the past six months we have heard anecdotal evidence that the situation is improving, and now we have some hard numbers that explains why. National Bank’s latest study of 10 major Canadian housing markets found that income growth was the reason, and that it had outpaced home prices -- and it looks as if that trend will continue. Rising incomes along with lower home prices, and relatively low interest rates, are a good start on the road to affordability.

National Bank measures affordability by looking at how much household income is spent on mortgage payments. Experts suggest that households should spend no more than a third of their income on housing costs. In the first quarter of 2019, the amount needed to pay mortgage payments on a average Canadian home was lower than the last quarter in 2018.

This is the case even in Vancouver, in both condo and non-condo markets. For example, in the condo market, a typical Vancouver household in the first quarter of 2019 the income needed to service a mortgage was down half a percentage point, quarter-over-quarter. And, it’s the first improvement in 15 quarters in the condo market.  The improvement was even better for a house at 2.5% lower.

In Toronto that measure dropped a full percentage point but consumers still need a substantial chunk of their income to cover housing costs on an average Toronto home. However, more buyers are looking outside these larger areas where homes are more affordable. These include Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatoon, Regina Winnipeg, Saint John, Halifax and St John’s.

The National Bank’s two economists, Matthieu Arseneau and Kyle Dams, were quoted as saying, “…mortgage rates were not a drag on affordability for the first time in seven quarters.” They remain confident that more relief is on the way.

Even the Bank of Canada expressed growing confidence that the country’s economy is rebounding. Interest rates remained unchanged for a fifth straight time and said recent data has “reinforced” their view a slowdown at the end of 2018 and early 2019 was temporary.

However, we’re still not out of the woods yet --there remains the issue of the stress test. There has been a concerted effort among lenders and the real estate and mortgage broker channels to lobby government to consider making changes. The mortgage brokers channel’s association, Mortgage Professionals Canada, (MPC) has been campaigning aggressively to modify the mortgage stress test.

Many economists have added their voices to the campaign against the current stress test, pointing to the negative impact it’s had and/or will have on the housing market and on the economy – reduced housing activity can have long term impacts.

 One of the core issues in their arguments is that the government didn’t take into account rising incomes.  MPC chief economist Will Dunning makes a good case in his recent report titled, “The False Binary” that to take into account the future growth of borrowers’ incomes, the stress tests should be set at 0.75 percentage points above the actual contracted interest rates – they are currently at a minimum 2 percentage points above contracted rate.

The economy may be gaining strength; incomes are rising and affordability is easing in many areas. What home buyers and the housing market needs now is a little help from government. No one is advocating to remove the stress test, but perhaps they might consider lowering it.

Anatomy of mortgage changes

There is little doubt that housing sales have slowed down in the past year, due in large part to stricter mortgage regulations. Part of those regulations is a mortgage stress test that requires borrowers to qualify for an interest rate that’s at least 200 basis points higher than the contracted rate. 

 Those in favour of the stress test saw it as a way to improve housing affordability by thinking it would result in falling home prices, as well as protecting homeowners from potentially higher interest rates at renewal.

While there were some house price reductions, there was also a major slowdown in house sales, which, one could argue, has helped fuel a slowing economy. 

History

The most recent round of mortgage rule changes came into effect in 2016, then in January 2018, more changes were introduced, including using the stress test to qualify for uninsured loans.  This had the greatest impact.   The next month, in February, sales declined in greater Toronto by 35% from those recorded in February 2017.  This past month (February, 2019) housing sales in greater Toronto were even 2.4% lower than a year ago. 

Housing sales in greater Vancouver were even weaker, with February 2019 sales 33% lower than the same month in 2018. In fact, February 2019 sales are 43% lower than the 10-year average for sales in February.

Evan Siddall, who heads Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), believes the stress test is bitter medicine that is working fine. Siddall credits the stress test for lowering housing prices. His comments were based on the stress test being introduced to lower housing prices; however, Carolyn Rogers, the Assistant Superintendent at OSFI, said something different in her speech to the Economic Club of Canada.

She explained, the stress test “was designed to target mortgage underwriting standards.” In her words, the test was intended to provide a safety buffer so that borrowers do not “stretch their borrowing capacity to its maximum.”

Is it plausible that OSFI and the CMHC had two different goals? Maybe.  OSFI’s goal did indeed lower high-risk lending somewhat as reported by the Bank of Canada. House prices did drop slightly.

It appears the government may have overshot its mark with the stress test, and the slowdown in the housing sales may have been an unintended consequence. 

Pushback

Many housing and mortgage industry voices started to lobby the government -- some believed the stress test was working fine, other’s say the impact has been devastating to home buyers, especially first-time homebuyers.

CIBC economists, Bejamin Tal and Royce Mendes predicted in November, 2018 that the housing market would be a drag on Canada's economic growth in the coming year. Residential investment accounts for 7.5% of Canada's economy.

"It was a good run while it lasted, but the sun has officially set on the days of heady housing market growth fuelling Canada's national economy," Tal and Mendes wrote. “And that could be bad news because housing investment is more important to Canada's economy "than at any other time on record," they added.

Proposed solutions

Two ideas emerged from various stakeholders and associations -- lower the stress test threshold that requires borrowers to qualify at least 200 basis points above the contracted rate; and/or reintroduce the 30-year amortization for CMHC insured mortgages.

Government response

The Liberal government introduced the following two measures in their recent budget announcement to address the issue of housing affordability and first-time home buyers.

Home Buyer’s Plan Withdrawal Increase. Effective immediately, first time home buyers can now withdraw up to $35,000 from their RRSP, tax free, up from $25,000, for a down payment. If you have a co-borrower, that total could be up to $70,000. 

A first-time homebuyer, as defined by the Canada Revenue Agency, allows repeat homebuyers to also be classified as “first-time” if they or their spouse haven’t occupied a home, they owned in the prior four years. 

Funds must be repaid over a 15-year period or the money gets added to your income for tax purposes. Starting in 2020, those who separate from a spouse or common-law partner will get to use the Plan, even if they’re not a first-time buyer.

First Time Home Buyer Incentive

Billed as a “shared equity mortgage”, the government will lend first-time home buyers’ money to buy a home. According to the budget document, this new incentive “enables homebuyers to reduce the amount of money required from an insured mortgage without increasing the amount they must save for a down payment.”

The government has earmarked $1.25 billion over three years, administered by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC), to provide up to  5 % of the cost of an existing home and 10% of a new home through what amounts to an interest-free loan to be repaid when the property is sold. 

Key points: 

•  Borrowers must have a down payment of at least 5% -- but less than 20% -- and a household income under $120,000.
•  The insured mortgage plus incentive, combined, cannot be greater than four times the participants’ combined annual household incomes.
• Condo purchases are allowed.
• The program is expected to start in September 2019 with further details to come this year. 
•  If you use it, the government will share in price gains or losses when you sell. (The government hasn’t released many details on this yet) 
• While the Department of Finance has not commented on this, the program is called a “shared equity mortgage”, so it may be safe to assume it will be a registered second.
•  You must be a first-time homebuyer. (We don’t know whether the government’s definition of “first-time buyer” will be the same as with its RRSP Home Buyers’ Plan (see definition above)
• Your mortgage must be default insured. Buyers may use any of the three insurers.
• There are no monthly payments required on this incentive money
• You have to pay the money back when you sell your home. There was no mention of what happens during a refinance but if similar programs abroad are any guide, a cash-out refi would trigger the repayment provision. 

Aftermath

Paul Taylor, CEO of Mortgage Professionals Canada, which represents the mortgage-brokerage channel, said in an interview with the Globe and Mail, he is disappointed that the government did not heed his organization’s calls to reduce the stress-test burden, which is keeping many home buyers from qualifying for mortgages.

But he said the new interest-free loan program will help the earners most affected by the stress test, so it may be a good alternative. The program requires more analysis to assess how successful it will be, he said.

His organization estimated that the stress test would compel about 200,000 potential home buyers to change their plans in the first two years of operation. If 100,000 are helped by the loan program over three years, “a good chunk” of people most impacted may be getting help, he said.

Many other key details, including precise repayment terms and maximum available loans, have yet to be addressed.  The government says CMHC will release full details later this year. That’s a long time, politically speaking and things could change again, given it’s an election year.

We will continue to monitor these announcements and update our readers as new information comes top light.

The Canadian economy and the housing market

We are living in strange times, economically speaking. Mortgage stress tests have slowed the housing market and may be one of the reasons the Bank of Canada has signaled it may pause on increasing interest rates. 

Home sales fell sharply in Canada last year -- the largest annual decline since 2008, spurring predictions the country could face stagnant sales in 2019.  The decline was due in large part to slowing activity in British Columbia and in the Greater Toronto Area, both hit hard by new government measures and higher interest rates.

The Canadian Real Estate Association has forecast little improvement in 2019, predicting 0.5% growth in national sales this year, over 2018.

Christopher Alexander, regional director for Re/Max in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, said the mortgage stress test has been the biggest factor keeping buyers out of the market, especially in Vancouver and Toronto.

 “It’s a lot harder to get a mortgage now than it has been for the last 10 years,” he said. “Not only do you have the stress test, but the big banks are very particular in their criteria. It just seems that everybody is being very cautious.”

However, there are variations across the country. The average price of all homes sold in the Greater Toronto Area fell 3.4% in 2018, for example, while the average price climbed 3.7% in Ottawa and 5.8% in Montreal.

Bank of Montreal economist Robert Kavcic predicts little change in national sales totals or prices in 2019. He suggested the the housing market is going into a period of stagnation.

A Bigger Picture

Recently Statistics Canada released its third-quarter report on national wealth, which is the “value of non-financial assets in the Canadian economy.” Total national wealth hit $11.415 trillion in the third quarter, and at $8.752 trillion, real estate made up a 76% share of that figure. That was the highest that both figures had been, going back to the second quarter of 2007.

Data from both Canada and the US shows that real estate as a share of U.S. national wealth in 2007 was 75.3%, compared to 67.6% in Canada. That started to change with the 2008 recession when US real estate as a share of national wealth started to decline while in Canada real estate wealth started to grow.

BMO has estimated that Canadian benchmark home prices will grow by less than one per cent next year and two per cent in 2020, dragged by “tougher mortgage rules and higher interest rates so the share should continue to trend modestly lower.”

Economists have mixed feeling about this trend. Some say a flat housing market is not anything to worry about. Others, like CIBC’s Benjamin Tal said the Canadian housing market is more important to the overall economy than at any other time on record. Aalthough the Bank of Canada (BoC) argues that the worst is now behind us, and that housing markets are stabilizing, some economists find it difficult to agree.

The BoC’s workhorse model says that six quarters can pass before a rate hike can be felt in the economy but according to Tal and others, only five quarters have passed since the first move of this cycle and “we’re already seeing a slowdown in housing-related indicators.” 

The Global Economy

There are growing fears about a worldwide economic slowdown.  Uncertainty with tariffs, ongoing trade wars, and even the US government shutdown (over for now) is all having a negative impact on the global economy as a whole. 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its expectations for the global economy, highlighting sharp declines in Europe and warning that the risks of a major slowdown have increased.

Already, at the annual World Economic Forum being held in Davos, Switzerland, there is worry about the global economy. Absent from the Forum is representation from the US. French President Emanuel Macron stayed home to deal with ongoing domestic issues. British Prime Minister Theresa May is home, desperately trying to eke out a bipartisan deal for Brexit.

In the United States, the shutdown has cut into growth. Early this month, consumer confidence slumped to the lowest level of Trump’s presidency, according to the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey.

While few see a recession as imminent, the number of risks is growing. As an economy slows, it’s easier for it to be knocked off track, many economists say.

 “After two years of solid expansion, the world economy is growing more slowly than expected and risks are rising,” said Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund in an interview in the Globe & Mail. “Does that mean a global recession is around the corner? No. But the risk of a sharper decline in global growth has certainly increased.”

Chief executives ranked a global recession as their No. 1 concern for 2019, according to a survey of nearly 800 top business leaders around the world. 

A survey of 1,300 chief executives released by PwC found that 30%  of business leaders believe that global growth will decline in the next 12 months, a record jump in pessimism to about six times the number who said that last year.

What happens now?

The “R” word has been bandied about lately. In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction, a general slowdown in economic activity. Economic indicators such as GDP, employment, investment spending, household income, business profits, and inflation fall, while bankruptcies and the unemployment rate rise. While we are living in a slowdown, we are not seeing high job losses or increases in bankruptcies.

There is also some optimism. In a blog by TMG’s David Larock, he writes that core inflation has not increased and five-year fixed rates continue to settle in at slightly lower levels. Variable rates are holding steady. 

It’s a matter of waiting this through, as Canadians did in 2008. There may be an upside-- this projected slow period means buyers can take their time searching for a house and not worry about missing out on a sale. 

As always, Canadians are a resilient bunch – this is just one more challenge they will overcome.

Housing affordability continues to erode

New mortgage rules, rising interest rates, and stress tests have definitely cooled housing market activity by making it more challenging for some to qualify for mortgage. An unwelcome consequence continues to be eroding affordability -- as sales activity slows down, house prices have continued to go up, and not only in major urban centres. 

In the first quarter of 2018, home affordability eroded further at the national level – the 11th straight quarter of declines, according to a report by the National Bank. The bank measures affordability as the mortgage payment on a median-priced home as a percentage of median income. Last quarter, the metric rose by 1.2 points in Canada. The higher the metric, the worse the housing affordability.

The bank also suggests that as interest rates rise, affordability will continue to decline, setting the stage where prices have nowhere to go but down. But when? And will it be too late?

The National Bank report also says that by the end of 2019, prices would need to fall 2% in Toronto and Vancouver to keep home affordability from eroding further.

Economists have been predicting a more stable, balanced economy where people are happily working and are able to pay their debts; where interest rates are “low normal” and where house prices are affordable.  Well, that was a few years ago. The once booming real estate sector is in a bit of a slump. 

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) reported that national home sales on the MLS were down 2.9% in April 2018, to the lowest level in more than five years. About 60% of all local housing markets reported fewer sales.

According to Will Dunning, Chief Economist, Mortgage Professionals Canada, data for the first quarter of 2018 points to a sharp slowdown. For the first quarter, the sales rate was 10.3% slower than in 2017. The average price in Canada was $482,782– a 4.8% drop compared to a year ago. However, when we look at the price index as opposed to averages, which can be easily skewed, Dunning reports a different picture.

The index from CREA shows that in the first quarter of 2018 prices were 6.4% higher compared to a year ago. The index from Teranet/National Bank shows a rise of 7.6%. Price growth is strongly influenced by the balance between supply and demand, which can be measured using the sales-to-new-listings ratio. The data from CREA indicates that the ratio was 56.6% in the first quarter. Based on that ratio, Dunning expects house price growth in many areas of Canada, which is what is indeed happening.

We are living in strange times. World economies have changed; NAFTA is at risk and our economy might start to feel the effects of a trade war with the US. The new mortgage-insurance rules and stress test have indeed impacted the market, especially for the first-time homebuyers.

In an April 2018 survey by West Coast Capital Savings, 60% of young British Columbians (18 to 29 years old) believe it’s impossible to buy a house in the province’s pricey real estate market and are “seriously considering” moving to areas where home ownership is less costly.

While some homebuyers can adjust their housing expectations and move to buy something less expensive, some potential buyers will be knocked out of the market. And will there be enough, good inventory available for purchase?

There is no arguing that the market has cooled, but it has not stopped. We have not yet heard of massive foreclosures, which mean that households continue to pay their mortgages and their debts. 

So, the big question is when will prices really start coming down in a way that will make housing affordable again. 

We need to continue to closely watch the market to determine if rising rates and lower home values are a blip or a trend which will ultimately impact long term affordability for Canadians.

A new world view – the impact of the Millennial generation

The world has changed dramatically over the past eight years since the Global Recession hit in 2008. The biggest change and one that will have the biggest impact to future economies is the changing demographics of the world’s population.

Millennials (ages 18-34) have now surpassed the Baby Boomer generation (ages 51-69) and Gen X’ers (ages 35 to 50) will surpass Boomers by 2028. These two groups, Millennials and Gen X’ers,  are quite opposite to Boomers in their spending habits, in their lifestyle choices, and their personal goals and will have a definite impact on our economies worldwide
.
Their spending habits, for example, are vastly different: Millennials are thrifty, buying more but spending about a quarter less on average than Boomers or Gen Xers, according to a new TD Bank report.

Research has found that Millennials are “confident, self-expressive, liberal, upbeat and open to change.” There are also some interesting differences between them and older generations. Here is how they match up on what they consider the ultimate reward for paid employment:

1.  Boomers want a prestigious title and the corner office.
2.  Gen Xers want the freedom not to have to do something.
3. Millennials prefer meaningful work.

About having children

1.  Boomers are controlled, their children were planned.
2. Gen Xer’s are doubtful about the possibility of becoming parents.
3. Millennials are definite about parenthood and view marriage and parenthood as more important than careers and success.

Another important difference is that Millennials are savers, smart shoppers and very tech savvy.  They are better money managers than older generations and live within their means. Despite the burden of student debt they seem to have money.

The Sharing Economy

What older generations considered “must-haves” are no longer important. For example, 30% of Millennials do not intend to purchase a car in the near future. Instead, they like the idea of Uber. They like to travel but check out sites like Airnb. Hotels and rental car companies have already begun to feel the effects.

The Freelance Economy

The freelance or “gig” economy has been growing for the past 10 years.  Millennials like the flexibility of freelance work for its flexibility. One reason is they are vastly under-employed despite having the most education and freelancing has become a viable alternative.

What about housing?

They like the idea of home ownership. According to the TD Bank study, the top three priorities for Millennials before purchasing a home include saving for a down payment, paying off debt and having a steady job. And 63% of them are considering purchasing a home in the next two years. Because they are a generation of savers, nearly two-thirds are saving for a down payment, citing it as the biggest hurdle. Other key findings include the following:

•  One-fifth of Millennials (19% ) plan to supplement their savings for a home with financial assistance from friends and family, and 65% plan to have a spouse or partner as a co-signer
• They want to pay off their mortgages quickly.
• Seventy-eight per cent want move-in ready homes. 
• Seventy-seven per cent  percent cited mortgage rates as the most important factor when purchasing a home
• Eighty per cent of Millennials feel commute time is key when purchasing a home. These location factors weigh heavily on their decision about buying in increasingly expensive urban housing markets.

Here’s what they don’t want to do:

• Move into a smaller house than they initially desired (68%)
• Sacrifice amenities e.g., convenient access to shops and services (81%)
• Compromise on their top choice of neighborhood (80%)

The New Economy

While it’s hard to predict what will happen in the future, it’s clear that Millennials and the technology revolution have already impacted global economies. What they do, their attitudes and behaviours are leading indicators of what's to come -- what they do will shape the rest of the world. They represent a huge shift in how people learn about the world around them and how they engage in it. Perhaps it’s time for a rethink about what is “normal” in today’s economy and work towards adapting to the changes.

The Brexit Vote

Written by Mark Kerzner, President, TMG The Mortgage Group

For the last few weeks we have been seeing flashes of news stories on the upcoming BREXIT vote, and this morning we have seen the results. Britain has voted by a narrow margin to withdraw its participation in the European Union (EU).

I have to admit I am a little bit of a political junkie. I often have CNN.com in my background at work and spend my time in the car listening to satellite news radio. And while we (O.K, I) were led to believe that the STAY vote would ultimately prevail, it was the LEAVE momentum that succeeded in the end.

Democracy in action is really a beautiful sight to see. Regardless of what position you had started on, everyone is now bound by the realities and the wishes of the majority. We see this storyline play out time and again. We see it happening in the US presidential election and we bear witness to it at home on a regular basis. Even if you were a staunch Harper supporter in the Fall election, Trudeau is our Prime Minister.

While there are certain elements of nationalism in recent social movements in western democracies there are also elements of xenophobia and demagoguery and those are the things that concern me.

Regardless of how close the polls had this vote, the markets were not anticipating this outcome. I actually was listening to a radio show yesterday afternoon that was quoting the U.K ‘bookies’ estimating this outcome at 20%. Since the markets were expecting a different result, the volatility that we have seen so far today was not to be unexpected.

The British Pound has fallen to a level not seen in 31 years, markets around the world are selling off and commodity prices (with the exception of gold) are falling.

I guess it is a little ironic in some ways that this movement to opt-out of an economic union has reminded us just how much we are all intertwined globally.

The UK amounts to a very small trading partner for Canada. That said, perhaps (just perhaps) this new global economic volatility will lead to a ‘natural’ slowing down of some of our heated housing markets. Perhaps the US Fed will remain on the sidelines a little longer before it starts increasing rates. Perhaps this will in some way help our housing concerns here at home.

At the end of the day though when all is said and done, we will continue to drive forward, our markets will eventually rebound and we will see the market swings subside … that is until the next geo-political item plays out.

Millennials need help with home ownership

Recent reports from two of Canada’s major banks -- CIBC and ScotiaBank -- offer a glimpse into the world of millennials and home ownership as well as the impact of the Internet on mortgage hunting. Bottom-line: Nearly two-thirds of millennials plan to own a home in the next five years, but don’t have the money for a down payment yet. Ninety-six per cent of Canadians rely on the Internet for information but 70% of those still rely on advisors for mortgage advice.

Among Canadians aged 18-24, two thirds (64%) of them plan to make the move to home ownership, with 63% looking to buy in the next five years, but nearly half (44% ) say they have not started to save. The down payment is the biggest obstacle; however, rising prices is seen as having an impact on their ability to buy.

A majority (56%) of Canadians are sympathetic and say something should be done to help the younger generation enter the housing market. Seventy-seven per cent believe that buying a home is more difficult for young Canadians today than it was for previous generations.

Here are the key findings from the CIBC poll about millennials and home ownership:

1.  64 % of Canadians aged 18–34 say that their future plans include buying a home. Among them: 63% plan to do so within the next five years, and 44% have not started to save yet for their down payment.
2.  54 % of millennials planning to buy a home say that saving enough for the required down payment is the biggest obstacle to home ownership. Other roadblocks include: Job security and earning enough to afford mortgage payments (53%) and rising real estate prices (46%). 
3. 56 % of Canadians say something should be done to help young Canadians get into the housing market.
4. 77 % of Canadians say buying a home today is more difficult for young Canadians than it was for previous generations

Although it may not be easy to get a mortgage, it is doable. Working with a mortgage broker, who can help map out a strategy, is a key step to make the dream of home ownership a reality. In fact, the result of a ScotiaBank poll found that 98% of Canadian now rely on the Internet for information, yet 70% still look to advisors for their mortgage advice. This is likely due to sheer volume of information available online.  The bank also predicts that by 2020, less than 1 in 10 financial transactions will occur in branches, which means that online transactions will increase.

So what does this mean for mortgage brokers and consumers? It’s actually good news for consumers. As competition increases, mortgage products may become more tailored with more options available. Competition is a good thing because it gives you choice. Brokers can help facilitate that choice.

 In the mortgage industry, with historically low interest rates, it’s easy to shop the market to find a low advertised rate, whether from your local bank or from your mortgage broker. However, mortgages are not as simple as some make them out to be, especially when rate is all that is considered.

It’s important that home buyers educate themselves about mortgages including the following areas:  pre-payment terms, penalties, fixed vs. variable, open vs. closed, etc.  Each situation is as unique as each borrower and each needs a unique strategy.

Again, the sheer volume of information online can be overwhelming.  While getting informed through Internet research is a good thing, once armed with that information, it’s still important to work with a licensed mortgage professional who will ask the right questions to tailor a custom-fit mortgage that works for short and long term goals.

What is happening to Canada’s housing market?

Well, that depends on where you live. But first, let’s look at the economic big picture. Oil prices are the lowest we have seen in decades – oil is currently trading around $29 a barrel. Why has this happened? Certain oil producing countries have flooded the market, which has driven the costs down.

It’s no surprise that this downhill slide has had a negative impact on the Canadian economy as whole, and in particular Alberta and Saskatchewan.  The energy sector accounts for more than a quarter of the national GDP. When the energy sector is doing well, so does the real state sector in those provinces and so does the economy as a whole.

Now to the Loonie which is trading in the low 70 cents U.S. The last time we saw this rate was in 2003. More disconcerting is that our dollar has lost more value against the U.S. dollar than other major currencies, including the Pound or Yen, leading some economists to whisper the “R” word. However, we have been in a “technical” recession for a couple of quarters now.

Foreign investment in the Canadian real estate market has driven prices up in provinces like British Columbia.  This is welcome news to those who own property, but as we’ve seen in the Greater Vancouver area, increased prices have made the market, for first-time home buyers, at least, more unaffordable.  Foreign investment is a major factor and the low dollar makes investing here an attractive proposition.
A snapshot taken from across the country shows continuing high prices in Vancouver and Toronto, and shows a sluggish economy in Alberta and Saskatchewan.  Housing starts are down across the board yet prices are still expected to increase, especially in high demand areas.

Despite the somewhat gloomy reports, it isn’t all that bad. First of all, mortgage rates, both variable and fixed, are low, making it easier for first-time home buyers to purchase a home, especially in markets outside of Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal where prices are more stable. And that’s the other plus – homes outside those areas are affordable. The new down payment rule may not affect areas outside large markets. The new rule requires that a 10% down payment is required for the amount that goes over $500,000. For example, a home purchased at $600,000 requires 5% down on the first $500,000 and 10% down on the balance of $100,000 for a total of $35,000. Prior to the new rule the down payment would have been $30,000.

Another factor is supply and demand -- as the population continues to grow, people have to live somewhere.  There are still more buyers out there then there are sellers, which means there is still a demand for homes. And so far, it doesn’t look as if the market is slowing down, with the exception of Alberta – Saskatchewan is already seeing increased activity.

The Spring market will soon be upon us and will come at the heels of the new Liberal government’s much-anticipated budget.  Prime Minster Trudeau vows to make it a budget focused on stimulating the economy as the country weathers this slow period of growth.
In the meantime, there will be no bubbles bursting in a housing market that is remarkably resilient.

Talk of housing bubbles may be just hot air

The latest housing price statistics from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has created a buzz in the media and talks of bubbles and an overvalued housing market have resurfaced.  According to CREA, the average house price has risen 5% over last year.

What that number does not show, however, is the lowered house prices in many markets such as Saint John and Victoria, for example. The red-hot markets in Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto are skewing the average according to CIBC economists Benjamin Tal and Avery Shenfeld and more than one-quarter of the sales are now in cities where house prices are increasing by less than the current rate of inflation – approximately 2.10 percent in August of 2014.

The CREA stat is no reason to panic once the numbers are broken down. The majority of that price gain are for high-end homes in the most expensive cities in the country—Toronto and Vancouver, said Avery Shenfeld in a Globe and Mail article and in the “their urban cores, as opposed to lower-priced alternatives in the suburbs.”
Evan Siddall, CEO of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) also sees no need to worry. Interestingly CMHC has a Housing Price Analysis and Assessment tool that gauges the housing market and takes into account the following:

•  Overheating of demand in the market

• Acceleration in prices

• Overvaluation in prices

• Overbuilding

The assessment of Canada’s housing market at the moment shows no immediate problems at the national level. Sidall was quoted as saying, “Our educated opinion is that growth in house prices in Canada will moderate.”

This opinion is shared by many in the industry. John Bordignon, EVP, Strategic Development at Paradigm Quest says it boils down to supply and demand. “Certainly low mortgage interest rates have fuelled some of the increase in activity,” he said. “However, when we analyze the market, we can see that the increased price in the high-end market are skewing the average and cannot be sustained simply because that same price appreciation is not occurring in the move-up market.”

At the high-end of the housing spectrum we have a seller’s market, he explained – more buyers then there are homes, which would naturally increase the price. However, tighter mortgage lending guidelines coupled with changes to mortgage insurance regulation have priced out first time home buyers, making it more difficult for the move-up market to move. Higher prices at the top-end may be also causing some affordability issues among those considering a move up.

“Eventually, those high-end prices should moderate – when there are no buyers, prices come down, which is happening to prices in the mid-range due to fewer first time buyers.”

The two stats that bode well for Canada’s housing market according to Bordignon are employment levels and low interest rates. “Corrections occur when unemployment rises, interest rates increase and house prices continue to rise. Here in Canada, we have stable employment levels and interest rates are still relatively low.

Despite the talk of bubbles, resale activity has been relatively stable over the past few years. Unit sales have fluctuated between 35,000 and 40,000 units per month according to a report by CIBC’s Benjamin Tal. Sales of units at the low-to-mid price range have fallen notably since 2010. Sales for the mid-to-high price range have risen modestly and sales for the upper end of the market have increased rapidly.

“In the Toronto market, for example, we see that the more expensive the property is, the faster its price rises,” Tal said. “A household that owned a single-detached property valued at say $600K and would like to move up, would have to pay extra not only for the jump in category, say $900K, but also for the fact that the price of the move-up property has risen faster than the price of their own property.”

Despite all the talk of the ups and downs of house prices, the mortgage lending market remains robust. Mark Kerzner, President of TMG The Mortgage Group has watched activity in housing market rise and fall for many years and although tighter regulations over the past few years have slowed activity somewhat, overall the market is healthy.

“We’ve had a low rate environment for many years now, and while fixed rates are poised to increase due to higher bond yields, ARM discounts are also increasing thereby making ARMS more attractive. We anticipate PRIME will likely stay low into the first half of next year as the Bank of Canada stays the course with its benchmark rate that’s still at 1%,” he said.

Kerzner also highlights the fact that the Canadian economy is healthy and affordability is in check despite the increased regulatory insight. “Qualified buyers are still able to access very low rates and lenders are offering a variety of mortgage products to suit the needs of more buyers,” he said.

“If we examine the current situation we see low interest rates, a housing market where the prices in most markets are stabilizing, a healthy economy that is growing and an inflation rate that is holding steady,” he said.

“The most important factor is your personal readiness.  A home is a long term investment and its value will fluctuate up and down over the course of your tenure in it. It is both a commitment and an achievement that reflects your aspirations and lifestyle, and offers a great deal of personal satisfaction, as well as financial stability.”

Yes, prices have increased in a few cities so it’s important to analyze what’s going on in your local market because all real estate is local. Mortgage rates and house prices will fluctuate but over the long term, homeownership is a sound investment that compares well with other investments. When you invest in mutual funds, the mantra for most is buy and hold. Similarly, your home is a buy and hold investment.

Can you afford to buy a house?

With rising interest rates, overvalued real estate and a lackluster economy, are first time home buyers and average income households being priced out of the housing market. Perhaps. Now that five-year fixed rates have increased two-thirds of a percentage point or more – up from 2.89% to 3.79% -- in the past month, first time buyers may find their dream of owning their first home out of reach, for now.

It was getting tougher to qualify for a mortgage when the government made changes to the rules, but now it seems to have solidified with the recent rate increases. There are other challenges as well. When qualifying applicants lender look at ratios to determine the percentage of household income that is allowed to go towards housing costs – that ratio is approximately 32%. The average non-mortgage debt load is approximately $28,000.

So, let’s say you have an average income of $70,000, your credit score is in the 700s, which is good, and your debt load is $28,000. You are looking for a modestly-price home because you don’t want to be house poor and have managed to save $15,000, which is 5% of a $300,000 home.  At the current 5-year fixed rate of 3.59%, amortized over 25 years – you don’t qualify. If we could amortize over a longer period, which we could a couple of years ago, then your housing costs ratio would fit, but your total debt, which includes your housing costs and all your other debt would disqualify you.

What could you afford? A mortgage of $213,000.  Depending on where you live in Canada -- that may not be an option. An affordability review of the real estate market across Canada by RBC shows that, nationally, the condo market is affordable with housing costs approximately 28.1%. However, costs for two-storey houses eats up to 48% of household incomes, with Vancouver coming in at 87.2%, Toronto and Edmonton at 62.7%. The most affordable cities have housing costs at 34.4%. The most interesting finding is that these affordability numbers have been pretty much the same since1985. Although Vancouver and Toronto are above their long-term affordability averages, those averages have always been above 32%.

So what can you do? There are options – paying off debt is the big one. A mortgage professional will be able to guide you, offer you options and devise a plan to help you achieve your dream of home ownership.
What will happen next in the housing market? No one can predict that, but some analysts believe that prices will start coming down. They also believe the economy will start to grow again next year as the world economies finally emerge from a prolonged recession. That would be welcome news for Canada, where growth has stagnated. It would mean better job prospects and higher earnings and a thriving economy.

Mortgage rates may not go down, but higher earnings, and less debt means you will be able to afford the house of your dreams.