What’s really going on in Canada’s housing market?

What are we to make of the mixed messages in the media? Are we in a bubble? Has the bubble burst? Are prices going up? Are prices going down? Are sales down or are sales up? Are new housing starts up or are they down? Is this a good time to buy? Are first time home buyers abandoning the market?

According to the Canadian Real Estate Association’s most recent report national home sales were down slightly from December 2016 to January 2017 by 1.3%. Yet actual activity in January was up 1.9% from the previous year. Newly-listed homes dropped 6.7% but prices were up; however, the average sale price has hardly changed in a year. What are consumers to make of it all?

Then there are the recent changes made in the mortgage industry that many say have further eroded affordability and have made it more difficult for first time home buyers to purchase a home. What is really going on?

Here’s what we do know – all real estate is local. In cross-country interviews, a snapshot emerges that concludes the following:

1. There is a lack of supply in all provinces, which dampens market activity
2. First time home buyers are still in the market but are now looking at lower-priced homes
3. Many homeowners are taking a wait-and-see approach before deciding to list, which is contributing to the lack of supply
4. High-end homes are the slowest to sell
5. Spring is coming

Here’s what a sampling of TMG mortgage brokers say is going on in their provinces.

Katy Mackenzie, Vancouver, BC
Due to the introduction of the B.C. Home Owner Mortgage and Equity Partnership program, condos or strata properties are very attractive to first time homebuyers.  We’re seeing multiple offers still and the re-introduction of Realtors asking buyers for subject-free offers, which is always risky.  Even in cases where we can offer pre-approvals, and many lenders are not issuing those anymore, we all know that anything can change. Many lenders will not look at a deal unless there’s already an existing offer.

Detached homes in the Vancouver area are not moving because it’s become harder to qualify and homes over $1million dollars are not insurable so there are fewer buyers. The luxury home market has also gone quiet because sellers have not brought down their list price.

We’re seeing multiple offers on small sq-ft properties. For example, a 415 sq.ft unit sold for $24,000 over asking price, another went for $31,000 over.

First time home buyers are still there. With the new qualifying rules, those who were on the affordability margin have left the market. Some are discouraged but others are being pro-active and paying down debt. Those still in the market have the down payment but are looking for lower-priced homes.

February has been significantly busier. Home buyers are still active and are still qualifying in the $1 million and below price range.

Layne Walters – Calgary, AB
Contrary to popular opinion, the real estate market here did not correct much – prices have been the same here for 10 years. House values have roughly been the same. Because there are so many ups and downs, supply and demand is always adjusting.  There is a challenge in the high-end market but there is stability here – homes are more affordable now then in the 80s – it’s not any cheaper to rent.

It’s the economy that’s struggling here.  Half of the city works in the oil and gas industry and they have been impacted in the last few years. The other half of the population are still working and doing okay.

What I am finding, however, is more people taking the time to learn about mortgages and their options, getting pre-approved then waiting. There’s not an urgency to buy because they know prices are not going to rise.  The market is moving at a slower pace but it’s steady. People still buy when it makes sense for them.

The recent mortgage changes have had less of an impact. Affordability is not really an issue. Minimum wage has gone up and house prices have remained stable.  It’s a slow, steady market – boring actually, if you compare it to what’ s happening in Toronto and Vancouver. First time home buyers come in and ask what they can afford. We’re not impacted by the new rules as have other markets.

This year has some promise. The oil and gas industry is hiring again so there will likely be a migration shift back to Alberta. The economy is projected to expand. We do have inventory available – it’s going to be a slow, steady kind of year. Sometimes it’s good to be boring.

Amber Rambally, Saskatoon, SK
Market activity is starting to pick up here especially for homes that are priced correctly. New builds are sitting because they have been significantly overpriced, but we’re starting to see prices dropping in those as well. The market is flooded with new condos, but prices of older condo conversions have dropped significantly.

The resale market has stayed even in the last year depending on how much work they need. Houses built in the 80s, early 90s are good quality and are typically on larger lots and have held their value quite well. Bungalows from the 70s were priced high but have now become more affordable.

However, buyers have been hesitant about getting into the market because of the new mortgage rules.  There have been lay-offs due to the slowdown in the oil and gas industry but we’re seeing people going back to work.

Clients are asking more questions and wanting pre-approvals but I don’t see them making that decision to get into the market yet.

What is nice in this market is that first time home buyers don’t have to start in a condo, they can get into some single-detached homes. While the new rules may have impacted affordability, having the down payment has not been a challenge. I’m sure 2017 will be a growth year in the market.

Jeff Sparrow – Winnipeg, MN
The market is hot and has been on an upswing for the last 10 years. There are tons of new home starts and new developments -- we have one development in the south end that’s slated for 30,000 homes. That’s in addition to six other sub-divisions.

There’s also lots of activity in the resale market but due to lack of supply there are multiple bids – it’s the sign of the times.

We have lots of jobs – manufacturing, agriculture, blue-collar, white collar.  If you’re in the construction industry, you’re busy.

Winnipeg’s unemployment rate is low. Manitoba’s growth is slow and steady and very stable. I anticipate that 2017 will be a good year.

The mortgage industry here is competitive, not helped by the fact that we have the largest per capita population of credit unions in the country. We work hard each day for our business in a very active mortgage market, but we’ve been dealing with this for awhile. Our approach to working with clients has not changed – we educate them and we offer them options –something they can’t get from a bank.

We’ve also seen an uptick in first time, quality home buyers. These clients need someone to have an intelligent conversation with them about how the mortgage lending industry works. We usually win the client over.  We’re looking forward to 2017.


Mike Rogozynski – Woodstock, ON
Here’s the new normal -- lack of supply. We have buyers but nothing to buy.  When a desirable home comes on the market, Realtors set a day for offers, resulting in multiple offers.

I know this happens in many markets now but it does inflate the selling price. In these type of situations Realtors want no financing conditions.  This adds an extra challenge for mortgage brokers, so I make sure to have all documents beforehand and I really push the online application process, rather than an in-office meeting, to speed up the process. We haven’t seen skyrocketing prices yet, like in Toronto, but prices are increasing. Houses are also closing faster – 30-45 days in areas.

As for the mortgage rule changes, most people are not aware of them and are confused when told that someone with 20% down gets a higher rate than someone with 5% down. Even after it’s explained to them they can’t see the lender’s side of things. Even Realtors don’t understand it.

First time buyers are still in the market – they get a preferable rate because they usually have only 5% down -- and they tend to be much more educated about the market and mortgages.

Blake Wilson, Halifax, NS
Our market seems to be stable. Clients are looking for house a little earlier this year and Realtors are optimistic. Homes under a half million are doing well; over that, there are fewer buyers. New construction properties are selling well.

Mortgage approvals continue to be a challenge, especially among the self-employed and now first time home buyers, given the recent rule change -- affordability has eroded for them.  For example, I had approved a salaried electrician who had saved the 10% down payment for a Purchase Plus mortgage. With the introduction of the new mortgage qualifying rule, he had to now pay out his student loan to qualify.

I am also seeing a lot of confusion at the banks from customer representatives who don’t understand the rules themselves. Banks seem to declining more deals where we can get them approved because we have many options.  For example, I had one client declined by two banks and I had them approved in 24 hours.

This is a great opportunity for brokers.  I am bullish on 2017.

10 crystal ball predictions for 2017

We are living in uncertain times..again. So, what can Canadians look forward to in the upcoming year – the unpredictable, for sure; however, there are a few trends we can pretty much bank on – maybe.

1.  Fixed rate mortgages are increasing. Since the U.S. election we have already seen some upward pressure on bond yields, which is one of the reasons fixed rates have increased.  The U.S. Federal Reserve has already started to raise its rates. This may put pressure on the Bank of Canada (BoC) to start raising the overnight rate in 2017 and into 2018. 
2. Trade disputes with the US. The incoming president of the US has already said he will get tough on trade deals. Our softwood-lumber agreement will soon expire and you can be sure that will be a tough negotiation.
3.  Oil prices may be higher – this is already happening, which may lead to improvements in  the economies of Alberta and Saskatchewan.
4.  Provincial growth. Royal Bank of Canada expects Ontario and Manitoba to be co-leaders in economic growth in 2017 while Alberta could place third and British Columbia and Saskatchewan may tie for fourth spot.
5.  The battered loonie may make some gains. Economist Todd Hirsch predicts the Canadian dollar will dip 70 cents early in the year, but will finish out the year at 78 cents. He also predicts the Federal Reserve will raise rates three times in 2017, while the Bank of Canada will sit on the sidelines until 2018. However, the loonie should stabilize and regain some ground toward the end of the year.
6.  Economy will expand to 2%. Bank of Montreal economist Douglas Porter predicts that the federal government’s long-awaited infrastructure stimulus measures should boost the economy.
7.  Changes to NAFTA & TPP. This could have a negative impact on Canada’s growth.  The bulk of Canada’s exports go to the US. However, the new president hasn’t said too much about Canada, yet. In a best-case scenario, our trade ties could get stronger.
8.  The pace of home prices will slow, especially in B.C. The latest numbers from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and the freshest reading of the Teranet-National Bank home price index are already showing this trend. An ample supply of listings relative to demand is anticipated to keep price gains in check.
9.  Help for first-time homebuyers. CREA predicts that housing sales, nationally, will decline, especially in BC and Ontario due affordability issues and tightened mortgage regulations. However, both provinces have introduced measures for first-time homebuyers to help with affordability.
10.  Housing sales will rise by 3.5% in Alberta. This is a hopeful prediction for the hard-hit province.  Sales are also forecast to improve modestly in Manitoba and New Brunswick. Sales will ease  slightly in Saskatchewan, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland and Labrador.

Happy New Year!

Did the mortgage market do what we thought it was going to do in 2014?

By Susan Ashton, BComm, AMP, TMG The Mortgage Group

As we all know, predictions and forecasts are all well and good but sometimes they fall short of what actually happens. While I might be able to predict, with some level of certainty, what is going to happen tomorrow, the longer the time frame, the harder it is to “hit the nail on the head”.

So let’s start with last December’s Globe and Mail article – Five Canadian Mortgage Market Predictions for 2014. I thought it would be fun and interesting to revisit this article and see how accurate it really was.

Keep in mind that Rob McLister of Canadian Mortgage Trends, the author of The Globe and Mail article, is one of the thought leaders when it comes to shooting straight from the hip about the mortgage industry and where’s it’s going. Here’s what he said would happen in 2014:

1. Prediction: New mortgage rules – Expect more rule tightening in 2014 designed to reduce mortgage risk for lenders, mortgage default insurers and the government. By definition, those rules will make it slightly harder to get approved for some mortgages and further slow the housing market.

What actually happened: Well, when it comes to new mortgage rules, we certainly saw lots of changes in 2012 and 2013, but fewer in 2014. We had CMHC cut their Self-Employed/Stated Income and Second Home products but there were no changes to the Genworth and Canada Guaranty (the two private insurers) products, so this hasn’t had a significant impact on approvals. We have seen lenders starting to change the way they view payments for debt servicing purposes on personal lines of credit. Where once we could use the actual interest–only payment, as long as it was proven, most lenders want us to use 3% of the outstanding balance. We still had a couple of lenders who would use the lower payment amount, but these last remaining lenders will discontinue this practice at the end of this year so I predict more restrictions in 2015 than we saw in 2014.

2. Prediction: Credit unions will steal market share – Since they’re provincially regulated, credit unions have more flexible lending guidelines than federally regulated banks. They’ll use that to their advantage in addition to marketing more heavily, both online and to mortgage brokers. We’ll also see some big mergers this year as credit unions seek out economies of scale.

What actually happened: Credit Unions are definitely increasing their market share. While I can’t say that I am using them more, they can do things that OSFI regulated lenders just can’t.  I expect it will take more time than one year to see Credit Unions really make a noticeable dent in market share.

3. Prediction: Stronger online player – A new online model is sacrificing commissions for volume. This trend will heat up competition industry wide, delivering greater mortgage discounts to all consumers.

What actually happened: Some online brokers do compete on rate though the full service brokerage model remains alive and well. Your mortgage is more than just rate – it’s about getting the best product for your situation; it’s about getting the right advice for your situation and it’s about protecting your future.

4. Prediction: Hybrid mortgages will grow more popular – Economists and government officials have been warning us of higher rates for four years. So far they’ve been wrong, and now many consumers aren’t sure what to believe. More Canadians will hedge their rate bets with hybrid mortgages (part fixed and part variable).

What actually happened:  Hybrid mortgages are definitely talked about more, but I’ve found that clients want the stability of a fixed rate payment, or the advantage of the lower payment/rate that a variable offers. Mainly it’s the savvy, yet risk adverse, investors who talk hybrid mortgages. These products represent a great opportunity to speak with your mortgage associate about what is right for you.

5. Prediction: Consumer IQs will increase – For those in the mortgage industry who prefer an uninformed consumer, your days are numbered. Canadians will spend more time researching rate comparison websites, online mortgage forums, news portals, blogs, calculators and other online mortgage tools. They’ll become increasingly savvy about fine print like penalty calculations, rate blend policies and refinance restrictions.

What actually happened: Consumer IQs are most certainly getting higher. The Internet has brought about change and transparency in the industry, which has benefited consumers. The younger generation also educates themselves online prior to making any sort of purchase – another great thing for the industry. I love to work with clients who come into my office, armed with great questions with a goal of learning even more. The perfect client! This will only continue as the amount of available information grows.

So there it is. Rob McLister just released his predictions for 2015 in the Globe and Mail. Let’s see how well he predicts the market next year.

Stay tuned!